ELEIÇÕES 2026: QUANDO A POLÍTICA COMEÇA A MEXER COM O MERCADO?

Summary

The episode discusses when the 2026 Brazilian elections will start to affect markets, noting that historical election volatility tends to spike in September and October but could begin to be priced earlier around the April governor deadline. It explores fiscal adjustment asymmetry, scenarios for a Lula re-election, Flávio Bolsonaro's growing candidacy, and the weakened Tarcísio presidential bid. The hosts conclude that January's market rally was little driven by politics, but election risk remains a key theme for 2026.

• Historical Brazilian election volatility peaks between late September and October.
• April 4 is the deadline for governors to resign if running, potentially an early political signal.
• Fiscal adjustment is seen as likely regardless of election outcome due to the size of the fiscal problem.
• A Lula re-election could cause year-end market stress, though less severe than 2024.
• Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy has gained unexpected traction as a moderate opposition option.
• Tarcísio's presidential bid is much weaker, reducing right-wing fragmentation.
• January's stock rally and dollar decline had little to do with politics.
• Elections are expected to remain a market theme throughout 2026.