Name: Squawk Pod: Inflation, Fed independence, & Iran - 01/15/26 | Audio Only
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T18:49:33+00:00
Duration: 2548 s

Speakers

Austan Goolsbee — President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Steve Liesman — Senior Economics Reporter

Brian Moynihan — CEO, Bank of America

Dan Senor — Author, Startup Nation; Host, Call Me Back podcast

Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box

Summary

The episode covers the January 15, 2026 macro backdrop, including low jobless claims, sticky inflation, and the Fed independence fight as the DOJ pursues a criminal investigation of Chair Powell. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says the labor market is stable but inflation must convincingly return to 2% before rates can fall, and he expects lower rates by year-end if that happens. Steve Liesman explains Fed funds futures no longer price a Powell cut before his departure and show reduced odds of a near-term cut. The show also discusses Iran protests and possible US intervention, plus Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan's warning that a 10% credit-card rate cap would pull back credit availability.

Jobless claims fell to 198,000, pointing to a low-hiring, low-firing labor market.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says inflation progress is needed before more rate cuts.
Goolsbee warns attacks on Fed independence would risk inflation roaring back.
Steve Liesman says Fed funds futures have ruled out a Powell cut before he leaves.
Iran protests continue as Dan Senor assesses the potential for US military action and regime survival.
Oil fell after Trump signaled he would hold off attacking Iran.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warns a 10% credit-card rate cap would reduce credit availability.
The episode discusses Fed chair succession odds, including Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.

Ideas

Brian Moynihan CEO, Bank of America 9:24

Credit card rate cap cuts credit availability.

Moynihan warns that a 10% credit-card rate cap would force issuers to require FICO scores well into the 700s, shrinking the eligible population; borrowers outside that range would be pushed to non-regulated or non-credit facilities. The result would be a dramatic pullback in credit availability, making the policy problematic for regulated card lenders and borrowers.

Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 11:17

Fed funds futures rule out Powell cut.

Liesman says the Fed funds futures market has changed: it has ruled out a final Powell cut before he leaves, with no Powell cut on the way out, and June cut odds around 68%. He also notes reduced odds for the new Fed chair and that Kevin Warsh has been elevated over Kevin Hassett; Warsh is seen as more hawkish or less dovish and less likely to follow administration orders, which could keep rate-cut expectations lower.

Austan Goolsbee President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 30:51

Rates lower by year-end if inflation cools.

Goolsbee says the labor market is stable in a low-hiring, low-firing pattern rather than a business-cycle downturn, and he has put aside concerns about job-market weakness. The key is getting inflation convincingly back to 2%; goods and tariff inflation may be easing, but non-housing services inflation is still above 4% with discouraging healthcare inflation. If convincing progress is made, rates can come down a fair amount, and he expects rates lower at the end of the year.

This CNBC video, published January 15, 2026, features Brian Moynihan, Steve Liesman, Austan Goolsbee discussing Credit card issuers, Fed funds futures. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brian Moynihan, Steve Liesman, Austan Goolsbee · Tickers: Credit card issuers, Fed funds futures

Squawk Pod: Inflation, Fed independence, & Iran - 01/15/26 | Audio Only

Summary

Ideas

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