The U.S. cannot run the government in Venezuela without local support, says Mark Mobius

Summary

Mark Mobius discusses Venezuela after Maduro's ouster, saying the situation is fundamentally about oil and U.S. interests in Venezuelan heavy crude. He argues the U.S. cannot govern Venezuela without local cooperation and may need military pressure or asset-protection persuasion. On investments, he sees a great opportunity in the Venezuelan market after the leadership change, noting its world-leading performance as locals use stocks to preserve assets, but flags liquidity and custody/banker willingness as obstacles.

• Maduro's ouster opens a new investment discussion for Venezuela.
• Mobius says the core issue is oil, especially Venezuelan heavy crude for Gulf refineries.
• China has been the largest importer of Venezuelan crude; the U.S. wants to reverse that.
• Mobius doubts Russia or China can respond militarily; the U.S. is currently in charge.
• He says the U.S. cannot run Venezuela's government without cooperation from people on the ground.
• Rodriguez and military commanders may require persuasion via military threat and protection of U.S.-held assets.
• Mobius sees a great opportunity in the Venezuelan market after the leadership change.
• Venezuelan market performance has been world-leading due to bolivar devaluation and inflation; liquidity and custody remain hurdles.