The Strait of Hormuz will never reopen the way it was at the beginning: Goldman Sachs’ Jared Cohen

Summary

Jared Cohen of Goldman Sachs discusses his recent Gulf trip and the geopolitical implications for the Strait of Hormuz. He argues the Strait will never fully reopen, supporting persistently elevated oil prices, and that GCC countries prefer a sloppy peace to buy time for diversification.

• Cohen believes the Strait of Hormuz will never fully reopen as Iran maintains partial control.
• This persistent supply risk is expected to keep oil prices elevated for a long time.
• GCC countries are pragmatically seeking a sloppy peace rather than addressing root causes.
• The UAE is actively working to reduce its Strait dependency from 50% to near zero within 2.5-3 years.
• Iran's nuclear capability is now viewed as additional leverage, not just a breakout weapon.
• The U.S. and Iran are engaged in a geopolitical game of chicken over the blockade.