Carlyle CEO on US Economy, Fed, MIT AI Partnership

Summary

Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz says the US economy is doing well despite uncertainty, with a resilient consumer and sticky but non-accelerating inflation. He expects the Fed to remain data-dependent, sees rates structurally higher on deficits and deglobalization, and says Carlyle likes its own shares and is buying back stock. He also discusses Carlyle's MIT AI partnership, views AI as transformative despite safety concerns, and explains the firm's sports and entertainment investment thesis, including the Seahawks minority investment.

• Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz says the US economy is resilient, with GDP around 2.25-2.5% and sticky inflation.
• He expects the Fed to be data-dependent, not entering a hiking cycle or an aggressive cutting cycle.
• Schwartz argues rates are structurally higher due to deficits, global capital demand, deglobalization, and security spending.
• Carlyle is focused on executing its plan, buying back stock, and believes its shares are attractively priced.
• Carlyle is joining MIT's Impact Consortium and using proprietary data and LLMs to improve investment decisions.
• Schwartz is positive on AI's long-term growth and expects breakthroughs despite safety concerns.
• Carlyle remains bullish on sports and entertainment assets, including its minority investment in the Seahawks.