Shipping Traffic Is Up Despite War in Iran, Says FreightWaves CEO

FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller states the freight recession is over and volumes are rising across trucking, rail, and ocean container shipping. He highlights a modal shift to rail driven by a near-record truck-rail spread that benefits J.B. Hunt and Hub Group. Higher shipping costs pose only a marginal inflation risk, and long-term trends like Arctic routes remain slow to develop. - Logistics industry adapts to Middle East tensions with higher shipping costs and rerouting. - Insurance costs for vessels are already priced in as the conflict simmers rather than escalates. - The Arctic route development is a long-term strategic ambition for China and Russia, aided by melting ice caps. - The freight recession ended in November 2025, with trucking, rail, and container volumes all on the rise. - Higher freight rates are not a major inflation worry because transportation is a small share of final prices and retailers absorb costs. - A historically wide 34% spread between trucking and rail rates is shifting freight to intermodal, favoring railroads and companies like J.B. Hunt and Hub Group. - U.S. domestic marine industry investment is getting policy support but will need many years and massive capital to rebuild.