Republicans have made the concerted decision to give up on swing voters, says Mick Mulvaney

Summary

Heidi Heitkamp and Mick Mulvaney discuss the November midterms, the Iran war's impact on oil and gasoline prices, Republican turnout strategy, key Senate races, and the Fed's interest-rate credibility under Kevin Warsh. The conversation is mostly political, with Mulvaney arguing Republicans are relying on base turnout and Heitkamp expecting a Democratic wave. The main market-relevant views are that oil prices are unlikely to fall before the election and the Fed may need to raise rates to defend its 2% inflation target.

• Heitkamp says high gasoline and diesel prices are a major inflation and transportation-cost burden that will anger voters.
• Mulvaney says if the Strait of Hormuz opened, oil could fall to $40-$50, but not before the election.
• Mulvaney argues Republicans have decided to abandon swing voters and focus on Trump base turnout.
• Heitkamp says Trump's Canada rhetoric and videos will motivate moderates and solidify Canadian opposition.
• Heitkamp is bullish on Democrats taking the Senate and views Michigan and Ohio as competitive.
• Mulvaney highlights New Hampshire and Texas as key Senate races and says Republican ad money needs to flow.
• Mulvaney says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh must raise rates or abandon the 2% inflation target.