Samsung Electronics-SK hynix, which finished their stock price binge eating... Is it time to prepare for a foggy railway? | Dr. Kim Han-jin, 3PRO TV Economist

Samjeon-Nix, which finished its stock price binge eating....Is it time to prepare for a foggy railway? | Dr. Kim Han-jin 3PRO TV Economist [Yeouido Insight]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 28, 2026 at 10:13  |  42:52  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Han-jin — Economist

Summary

Kim Han-jin tells Yeouido Insight that AI remains the market's dominant cycle, with a new phase shifting toward bottleneck solutions such as optical communication, agent AI, and physical AI. He views gradually rising inflation as supportive of equities and the current Fed hold as historically favorable, while warning that rate cuts are not automatically bullish. The main risks he highlights are an oil spike if the Hormuz blockade extends, higher KOSPI volatility, and a possible intermediate correction in crowded AI and semiconductor shares.

  • AI remains the key driver of the market cycle.
  • Korean semiconductor earnings are central to KOSPI performance.
  • Slow inflation is viewed as positive for equities.
  • Fed hold is historically favorable; rate cuts may signal weakness.
  • Hormuz and oil are the main short-term macro tail risks.
  • Semiconductor crowding, rally speed, and demand sensitivity are key risks.
  • KOSPI is expected to retain higher volatility than US markets.
Ideas
Kim Han-jin Economist 2:16
AI semiconductor supercycle remains intact.
The AI cycle is the market's dominant driver and has repeatedly proven stronger than the pessimism seen earlier in the year. Kim expects AI to enter a new phase from roughly 2026-2032 focused on resolving infrastructure bottlenecks such as optical communication, agent AI, and physical AI, which should require more compute and keep semiconductor demand strong. Korean top-two semiconductor earnings are central to the KOSPI, and he treats corrections as opportunities rather than the end of the cycle.
SMH 005930.KS 000660.KS HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 4:52
Oil tail risk from Hormuz.
Oil is the most sensitive short-term macro variable. If the Hormuz blockade persists for about two quarters, Dallas Fed analysis cited by Kim implies oil could spike toward $130-140 and year-end prices could stay near $90-100, pressuring markets. If the situation eases, oil around $100 can drift lower and the risk is manageable.
WTI HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 8:24
KOSPI has structurally higher volatility.
KOSPI earnings growth is much more explosive than US earnings growth, especially for the top-two semiconductor companies, so the KOSPI inherently carries higher volatility than US or other overseas markets. It rose too quickly before the war and therefore cracked more sharply. If the market pulls forward 24-month forward earnings, the KOSPI could overshoot toward 8,000-9,000, but sharp corrections are also part of that higher-volatility regime.
EWY HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 11:07
Slow inflation supports equity markets.
US CPI is about 1 percentage point above pre-COVID averages, but gradually rising inflation is positive for equities because corporate revenues rise in nominal terms and companies hold real assets. Dominant and oligopolistic firms can pass through prices, and productivity growth has outpaced wages, supporting profits and shareholder returns. Fast inflation is negative via higher rates, but the current slow inflation trend is a favorable equity environment.
VT HIGH
Kim Han-jin Economist 12:24
Korean defense has pricing power.
In a slowly inflationary world, oligopolistic and dominant suppliers can raise prices. Korea's defense sector is a clear example: demand exceeds supply, products are scarce, and defense companies can pass through costs and raise prices, making the sector a beneficiary of this environment.
Korean defense sector LOW
Kim Han-jin Economist 25:57
Fed hold favors US equities.
Historical Fed-cycle data show US equities return about 18% per year during a rate-hike pause, more than during hikes, while cuts after a pause have averaged negative returns because cuts usually signal economic weakness. The current Fed is in a hold, which Kim views as a favorable regime for equities, and the common assumption that rate cuts are automatically bullish is flawed.
SPY HIGH
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published April 28, 2026, features Kim Han-jin discussing SMH, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, WTI, EWY, VT, Korean defense sector, SPY. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Han-jin  · Tickers: SMH, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, WTI, EWY, VT, Korean defense sector, SPY