Ideas
Trend followers need dynamic parameter selection.
Given the post-2022 change in what works and Quantica research showing regime-dependent speed efficacy, trend followers may need dynamic parameter selection rather than a static set of parameters. He sees this as a logical way forward.
Non-correlated assets in early inflow wave.
There has been a massive, correlated growth of non-correlated assets and strategies, including precious metals, crypto, structured products, and hedge funds/CTAs, with most AUM doubling, tripling, or quadrupling in about three years. The driver is a supply-demand imbalance: roughly $400-500T in long assets versus only about $20T in uncorrelated assets, plus higher interest rates, the 2022 stock-bond correlation breakdown, record equity valuations, rising debt, loss of US hegemony, and bonds' inability to offset equity risk. He argues this wave is early innings and could define an interesting decade for non-correlated strategies and anything related to non-correlation.
Total portfolio demand lifts uncorrelated strategies.
Different investor types are driving flows into uncorrelated assets: retail into crypto ETFs, central banks into gold as a dollar and inflation hedge, and allocators into hedge funds and CTAs via total-portfolio-allocation frameworks. This growing valuation of uncorrelated investment methodologies supports the space.
Buffered ETF demand still early and growing.
The 2022 stock-bond correlation breakdown and wealth-management education created a new allocation bucket for non-correlated and structured products. Buffered ETFs are still tiny relative to the $13T ETF market, and demand is likely to grow as advisors and investors understand these tools.
Vol compression breeds dispersion, hurts long-short equity.
As structured product issuance and long-short equity AUM grow, low-liquidity periods see index-level volatility compression from structural product supply. Because idiosyncratic risk remains, single-stock constituents disperse, especially where long-short equity positioning is crowded, causing structural pain in long equity and long-short equity. These flows will increasingly drive underlying asset outcomes.
Vol compression breeds dispersion, hurts long-short equity.
As structured product issuance and long-short equity AUM grow, low-liquidity periods see index-level volatility compression from structural product supply. Because idiosyncratic risk remains, single-stock constituents disperse, especially where long-short equity positioning is crowded, causing structural pain in long equity and long-short equity. These flows will increasingly drive underlying asset outcomes.
Hold managed futures, avoid performance chasing.
Return dispersion exacerbates behavioral effects: investors buying top managers and selling bottom managers off and on get worse outcomes than simply holding the strategy. Investors should allocate to the managed futures/CTA space and hold it rather than performance-chase.
Combine CTA styles for higher alpha.
Dispersion within CTAs is a diversification opportunity, not just a problem. Combining managers with different speeds, alternative market sets, and liquid futures exposures gives access to multiple alpha sources; a joint portfolio can retain CTA-like behavior with higher alpha and be easier for allocators to hold.
Dispersion and vol selling stay profitable.
Structural demand for autocalls and structured products affects volatility supply and demand. If investors keep overbuying index volatility, dispersion becomes a better theme, and selling volatility remains profitable because the behavior is rooted in investors' economic nature.
This Top Traders Unplugged video, published January 15, 2026,
features Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, Cem Karsan, Nick Baltas, Andy Bear, Katy Kaminski, Richard Brennan
discussing DBMF, Hedge funds, GLTR, Structured products, GLD, Buffered ETFs, Equity dispersion, Long-short equity, Selling volatility.
9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen,
Cem Karsan,
Nick Baltas,
Andy Bear,
Katy Kaminski,
Richard Brennan
· Tickers:
DBMF,
Hedge funds,
GLTR,
Structured products,
GLD,
Buffered ETFs,
Equity dispersion,
Long-short equity,
Selling volatility
