Squawk Pod: SpaceX bull Ron Baron & Vice President JD Vance - 06/15/26 | Audio Only
Speakers
Ron Baron
— Founder, CEO, and Portfolio Manager, Baron Capital
Brian Sullivan
— Anchor, CNBC (Last Call / Power Lunch)
Leslie Picker
— Chief Correspondent, CNBC
Summary
CNBC's Squawk Pod covers two major headlines: a US-Iran peace deal set to be signed Friday that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and sends oil prices sharply lower, and SpaceX's first full day of public trading. Vice President JD Vance details the deal's two-step verification framework and Iran's commitment to never develop nuclear weapons. Billionaire investor Ron Baron reveals his ~$25 billion SpaceX position across Baron Capital funds and explains his thesis that SpaceX could be worth $20-40 trillion within a decade, driven by Starlink, space-based AI compute, and custom chip manufacturing.
- US and Iran agree to a peace deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, eliminating the war premium from oil markets
- WTI crude drops to $80, November futures price $73; Brian Sullivan expects further declines as Gulf states rapidly load ships
- Equity futures soar, airlines rise 4-5%, Korea surges 6%, Japan rallies on lower oil
- Fertilizer stocks CF Industries and Mosaic benefit as helium and other strait-dependent products regain free passage
- SpaceX debuts as a public company with shares up 19% on IPO day and rising further in premarket
- Ron Baron holds $25B in SpaceX across Baron funds and added $1B on IPO day to maintain ownership stake
- Baron sees Starlink alone reaching $1T revenue within 10 years, space-based AI compute adding trillions more
- JD Vance confirms Iran must destroy enriched uranium stockpiles and accept long-term inspections for sanctions relief
Ideas
Peace deal wipes out oil war premium
The Iran peace deal wipes out almost the entire war premium from oil prices, taking WTI back to where it was one year ago. Forward futures are already pricing November WTI at $73, which would support national gasoline near $3.00. The Strait of Hormuz reopening enables faster crude loading from Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain. The pace of loading in the Arabian Gulf/Persian Gulf states will be the key variable to watch, and those countries can load ships faster than the market expects.
Korea and Japan rally on cheaper oil
Korea and Japan are surging on the Iran peace deal because those markets are highly oil-dependent importers and benefit significantly from lower crude prices. Korea is up 6%.
Cheaper fuel lifts airline stocks sharply
Airlines are trading up 4-5% this morning as the peace deal and collapsing oil prices reduce jet fuel costs, directly benefiting airline profit margins.
Strait reopening unblocks fertilizer shipping routes
Fertilizer companies CF Industries and Mosaic benefit from the Strait of Hormuz reopening because helium and other non-oil products that transit the strait can now flow freely, improving their supply chains and input availability.
SpaceX has a 10-year head start over all competitors in rockets, satellites, and networks. Starlink alone could generate $1 trillion in revenue with $700-800 billion EBITDA within 10 years and be worth ~$14 trillion. Compute AI data centers in space by 2027 offer multiple trillions in revenue at 70-80% profit margins. The company is also partnering with Intel on custom chip manufacturing to overcome chip supply constraints from Nvidia. Elon Musk is a historic, one-of-a-kind builder who consistently accomplishes the impossible. Currently valued at ~$2 trillion, SpaceX could be worth $20-40 trillion in 10 years.
