Name: Ouro $5.000, dólar caindo e intervenção no iene, o que está acontecendo?
Uploaded: 2026-01-26T20:30:08+00:00
Duration: 1001 s

Speakers

Fernando Ulrich — Financial Commentator, Independent

Summary

Fernando Ulrich reviews a historic week in global markets, with gold above $5,000/oz, silver above $110, a falling dollar index, rising Japanese yields, and rumors of US-Japan yen intervention. He argues these moves reflect broad distrust of fiat currencies and a policy-driven weaker-dollar regime, while warning that European and Japanese capital repatriation could threaten US assets. He also rejects the idea that the dollar is heading toward hyperinflation, calling depreciation distinct from a full currency collapse.

Gold topped $5,000/oz and silver surpassed $110/oz.
The dollar index fell below 97 as the US appears to favor a weaker dollar.
Japanese yields rose sharply, with 30-year above 3.5% and 10-year at 2.4%.
Rumors of joint US-Japan yen intervention moved USD/JPY from near 160 toward 153.
Europe and Japan are large holders of US assets; potential repatriation could pressure US stocks and Treasuries.
Ulrich sees a historic fiat-currency debasement trend but rejects imminent dollar hyperinflation.

Ideas

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 0:04

Gold signals distrust of all fiat currencies.

Gold has broken above $5,000/oz and is the key signal of a historic monetary transition. It is appreciating not only against the dollar but against the euro, yen, sterling, yuan, and Swiss franc, while central banks keep buying and gold's share of reserves has surpassed 25% and may approach 30%. This reflects broad distrust of paper/fiat currencies and a declining dollar-based monetary standard, so gold remains supported even though the speaker does not expect immediate dollar hyperinflation.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 1:13

US dollar is in policy-driven downtrend.

The dollar index has broken below 97 and is falling as the US government appears to be pursuing a weaker dollar or stronger foreign currencies, including possible intervention to strengthen the yen. Tariff and trade-war policies are also reducing foreign investment flows into US assets, reinforcing the broad dollar depreciation trend.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 1:39

Japanese bond yields rising; JGBs unattractive.

Japanese government bond yields are rising sharply—30-year above 3.5% and 10-year at 2.4%—as the Japanese Treasury needs refinancing and Prime Minister Takaichi's expansionary fiscal stance could push rates even higher if she remains in power. The Bank of Japan appears to be losing control of the yield curve, making JGBs unattractive.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 2:54

Yen intervention setup may strengthen JPY.

The yen is unusually weak despite rising Japanese yields and a narrowing US-Japan rate differential, and rumors of joint US-Japan intervention to strengthen the yen moved USD/JPY from near 160 back toward 153. Because the yen is a global carry-trade funding currency, intervention or Japanese capital repatriation could trigger sharp yen strength and carry-trade unwinds.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 5:57

Euro may rise on capital repatriation.

The euro has strengthened against the dollar and could gain further if Europe uses its financial leverage over the US—selling US Treasuries and other US assets and repatriating capital in response to Trump's Greenland threats and tariffs. Such repatriation would reinforce euro strength and dollar weakness.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 6:35

Foreign repatriation threatens US stocks and bonds.

Europe and Japan are major holders of US assets and could sell Treasuries, equities, and fixed income to repatriate capital, especially as tariff and capital wars reduce foreign investment flows into the US. This is a latent risk that would pressure US stock and bond markets even though Trump wants a weaker dollar without a US asset collapse.

Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 10:02

Japanese repatriation may support local equities.

Japanese pension funds and households like Mrs. Watanabe may repatriate capital as Japanese yields turn positive, selling US Treasuries and US equities and investing back into Japanese assets, including the local stock market. This could provide a domestic flow tailwind for Japanese equities.

Ouro $5.000, dólar caindo e intervenção no iene, o que está acontecendo?

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