Gold, Precious Metals Seeing Multiple Drivers, Says Morgan Stanley’s Gower
Speakers
Amy Gower
— Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley
Summary
Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley's lead metals and mining commodities strategist, says gold and precious metals have multiple supportive drivers and have not peaked. She cites geopolitical risk, price momentum, dollar weakness, expected Fed cuts, and a shift in central bank gold buying. She highlights a 5,700 bull case for the second half and notes Poland's move to an absolute 700-tonne gold target as a structural demand signal.
- Precious metals rally has multiple simultaneous drivers.
- Geopolitical risk and price momentum are drawing investors to precious metals.
- Dollar weakness and expected Fed cuts are supportive for commodities.
- Central bank gold buying may be shifting to absolute tonnage targets.
- Poland's 700-tonne target implies about 150 tonnes of buying, +50% versus last year.
- Morgan Stanley highlights a 5,700 bull case for the second half.
- Gower says prices have not peaked.
Ideas
Central bank gold demand supports higher prices
Gold has not peaked; the key changed driver is central bank behavior: central banks may now target absolute gold tonnage rather than a percentage of reserves. Poland's 700-tonne target implies about 150 tonnes of buying, roughly 50% more than last year when it was already the largest buyer. If central banks buy gold regardless of price, structural buying could stay higher than previously expected. ETF buying is also a positive signal, and she highlights a 5,700 bull case for the second half.
Precious metals have multiple supportive drivers
Multiple drivers are working together for precious metals: geopolitical risk and uncertainty are driving investors toward the sector, strong price performance is adding momentum, recent dollar weakness is a tailwind because it makes commodities cheaper for non-dollar holders, and the expected Fed cutting cycle is supportive.
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