Semiconductors Endure Stock Market Turbulence... Why the Leading Stock Isn't Changing | Hong Seon-ae, Noh Geun-chang, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center Head [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research at Hyundai Motor Securities, addresses the recent sharp correction in Korean memory stocks despite strong earnings. He argues the sell-off is driven by sentiment fears over memory price peaks and hyperscaler capex sustainability, but structural changes — widespread long-term contracts and indirect supply via Nvidia/AMD — will protect memory prices until 2028. With rapidly accumulating book value, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix now trade at compelling PBR levels, making the dip a buying opportunity. He also notes semiconductor equipment is in a severe bottleneck while materials are not, and cautions that Samsung foundry is not yet a catalyst.

• Memory stocks suffered a sharp one-month correction on doubts about demand and memory price sustainability.
• The speaker sees the memory upcycle as structurally extended by 3–5 year contracts and indirect supply through GPU platforms.
• Book-value projections for Samsung and SK hynix suggest PBR multiples have compressed to attractive entry levels.
• He expects memory prices to remain well-supported through 2028, limiting downside risk.
• New product ramps (HBM4, LPDDR6) in 2H 2023 should reduce customer pushback on memory prices.
• Semiconductor equipment faces serious supply bottlenecks, offering multi-year earnings visibility, while materials are ample.
• Samsung foundry turnaround not yet a catalyst; the stock should be evaluated on its memory business.
• Market recovery hinges on demand-side players reaffirming capex plans despite rising memory costs.