Why I'm not selling semiconductors even with today's sharp drop... The next key to the AI rally is 'productivity' | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol argues that semiconductor fundamentals remain strong despite macro noise, and he would buy AI semiconductor large caps on macro-driven selloffs. He sees Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as unusually cheap at roughly 4.8x forward earnings even after adjusting for won strength, with a potential re-rating toward Micron. The next key for the AI rally is enterprise productivity confirmation via MFP data; until then, debt-heavy AI cloud names such as Oracle and CoreWeave are vulnerable. He also highlights oil's $110 threshold and Micron/SanDisk as signals for timing Korean memory exposure.

• Macro geopolitics and Fed rate-hike risk are treated as noise unless oil reaches the $110 market threshold or CPI surprises.
• Semiconductor fundamentals are described as strong, with Nvidia and Broadcom showing AI revenue visibility and memory makers receiving long-term demand.
• Apple's reported multi-year NAND supply request to Kioxia is cited as evidence even weak NAND has supplier pricing power.
• Korean won strength may cut Samsung and SK Hynix next-year earnings estimates 10-15%, but their 4.8x forward P/E is still cheap.
• Micron and SanDisk are highlighted as leading indicators for foreign inflows into Samsung and Hynix.
• Productivity and MFP confirmation is framed as the next key for AI's re-investment cycle.
• Oracle and CoreWeave are named as vulnerable debt-heavy cloud names before productivity is confirmed.