Will the cruel history of the KOSPI decline in September repeat? What will be the trigger for a refreshing rise in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix? | Director Lee Young-hoon

Summary

Lee Young-hoon argues a September Fed rate hike is unlikely despite Treasury yield spikes. He sees Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as fundamentally supported but lacking a near-term trigger because memory positioning was cut and retail supply was damaged by leveraged ETFs. He emphasizes shareholder returns from AI beneficiaries and Samsung affiliates as potential liquidity catalysts. For KOSDAQ, he advises a rotation-focused strategy using Ichimoku cloud breakouts rather than chasing already-moved sectors.

• Lee thinks September is not a Fed rate hike timing and the employment report is unlikely to force one.
• Global funds cut memory weight in August, leaving Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix without foreign buying support.
• LTA revenue visibility and open upside optionality limit fundamental downside for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• Shareholder returns and buybacks from AI beneficiaries could restore retail liquidity and improve market rotation.
• Samsung Life and Samsung C&T are named as large-earning Samsung affiliates that also need shareholder-return improvement.
• KOSDAQ rotation is weak, and chasing already-moved nuclear and cosmetics trades caused losses.
• Lee recommends Ichimoku cloud breakout screening and notes strength in Korean materials/components/equipment names.