Don't see Fed Chairman Warsh raising rates before the midterms, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

Summary

Jeremy Siegel argues the Treasury's 'Bessent twist' debt buyback was unnecessary and that current long-term rates are not a choke point for markets. He sees Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as a key event: clear Fed criteria could spark a market rally, while a vague speech could invite another market test. Siegel also expects a benign PCE report and does not see the Fed raising rates before the midterms.

• Treasury/Bessent debt buyback was seen as unnecessary and not needed to calm markets.
• Siegel says current long-term rates, including a 10-year near 4.75% and 30-year above 5%, are not panic levels.
• Kevin Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole speech is viewed as a major market event.
• Clear Fed criteria could spark a rally; a non-informational speech could cause the market to test the new Fed chair.
• Wednesday's PCE report is expected to be at or below expectations.
• Siegel does not see a Fed rate hike before the midterms.
• The market wants Fed criteria, not forward guidance.