Name: September Stock Market's Biggest Risk Is Something Else... "Look at My Account, Not the Index" | Park Byeong-chang, MP Partners CEO [Market Inside]
Uploaded: 2026-09-02T00:12:27+00:00
Duration: 2682 s

Speakers

Park Byeong-chang — Director, MP Partners

Summary

Park Byeong-chang sees September as a weak, uncertain market where Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks may keep KOSPI looking stable while most stocks bleed. He advises conservative account management and cash-raising in the near term, even though KOSPI is extremely cheap near 6x earnings and could offer a better entry later. He is structurally bullish on Samsung and SK hynix because AI memory LTAs give them pricing power, and he flags US 10-year yields near 5% and the US-Iran oil risk as key macro triggers.

KOSPI is being defended by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks while broader stocks drift lower on shrinking volume.
Macro backdrop is negative: US 10-year yields near 4.8%, FOMC hike uncertainty, and US-Iran military conflict.
WTI crude is above $90, and US-Iran peace negotiations are the biggest year-end swing factor.
KOSPI valuation is near 6x forward operating profit, well below Asia and the US.
Samsung and SK hynix benefit from AI memory shortages, HBM price premiums, and LTA volume locked with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.
Battery and stablecoin news were discussed but framed more as news flow than explicit stock recommendations.

Ideas

Park Byeong-chang Director, MP Partners 0:56

Watch US 10-year yield near 5%.

US 10-year yields are now near 4.8% and Japan's 10-year yield has reached 3%, the highest since 1996. Park reads this as a serious risk signal because the growth rate is lower than in past crisis episodes, and he says if US yields reach 5% it would be genuinely dangerous. He adds that the Fed may hike to anchor long yields, which could pull long yields down, but starting a tightening cycle would tighten all asset markets, so he treats the 4.8-5% area as a critical regime to monitor and wants a more conservative posture.

Park Byeong-chang Director, MP Partners 1:50

Watch oil on US-Iran conflict.

The US-Iran military exchange has pushed WTI above $90, adding geopolitical risk premium to oil. Park identifies US-Iran peace negotiations as the biggest market variable into year-end: if conflict continues, oil and risk assets stay pressured; if a peace deal comes, it would be a major relief. This is a developing macro commodity setup worth monitoring.

Park Byeong-chang Director, MP Partners 7:28

Index can hide broad stock erosion.

KOSPI is trading near 6x forward operating profit: roughly 989 trillion won of estimated KOSPI operating profit versus 6,100 trillion won market cap, far below Asia's 13x and the US 23x. Even an 8x multiple would imply about 30% upside. Park agrees the market is genuinely cheap, but warns cheap can get cheaper in September, so he is using weakness to prepare for better entry opportunities rather than treating valuation as an immediate buy signal.

Park Byeong-chang Director, MP Partners 32:01

Buy Samsung/SK dips; memory pricing locked.

AI memory demand is structural, not cyclical. Samsung has allocated about 70% of its DRAM output to LTAs with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, leaving only 30% spot supply and giving suppliers extreme pricing power. HBM3 spot prices are 4-5x LTA levels, HBM4 spot is around $3,500, server DRAM remains short, and Nvidia's $279bn purchase commitments confirm a supplier-led market. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix trade near 4x operating earnings, so if a macro shock knocks them down sharply, Park sees buying as a high-probability profit opportunity because LTA visibility has made their stock paths clearer.

September Stock Market's Biggest Risk Is Something Else... "Look at My Account, Not the Index" | Park Byeong-chang, MP Partners CEO

Summary

Ideas

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