Ideas
Bitcoin failed and is a sell.
Bitcoin failed as peer-to-peer money and store of value because it lacks fungibility and unit-of-account properties, does not scale, uses too much energy, and is centralized in governance, mining, and exchanges. He also sees quantum-computing risk, synthetic BTC via ETFs and derivatives, and artificial demand from Michael Saylor that may unwind. He does not necessarily call for zero but expects low or lateral prices for years and says to sell Bitcoin and buy commodities.
Gold is superior commodity money and protection.
Gold is commodity money that survived thousands of years of natural selection, is immutable, has monetary and industrial demand, and is being accumulated by central banks. He likes gold as protection against fiat debasement and the expected deflationary crisis, although he prefers silver on relative value.
AI and tech bubble will plateau.
He sees an AI and technology bubble forming that will eventually plateau, because technology companies are circulating money among themselves without generating real-economy value, creating a kind of fictitious GDP. He believes AI will change the world, but human exaggeration of euphoria will reverse.
Most altcoins will disappear like dotcoms.
Most crypto projects are solutions in search of a problem; thousands of altcoins will not survive the coming cleanup, similar to dot-com companies. He prefers to stay out of most of the crypto market and wait for survivors to emerge.
Tokenization of real-world assets will win.
The future of crypto is tokenization of real-world assets: stocks, commodities, real estate, debt, and other property. Blockchain improves integrity, security, speed, 24/7 trading, smart contracts, collateral, and property rights while lowering costs; B3 and global exchanges are moving this way. He is investing in tokenization through his own company.
Ethereum token unattractive despite useful network.
The Ethereum network is useful for tokenization and has many projects, but he would not speculate on ETH and expects its price could fall further, which would make the network cheaper to use. So the token is not an attractive investment even if the network survives.
Solana and Tron may survive on utility.
Solana, Tron, or some similar network will likely continue existing because they have real utility for tokenization and transactions, though he is not making a price call.
Monero may survive for private transactions.
Monero better fulfills the cypherpunk role than Bitcoin because it is fungible and anonymous; it may survive due black-market demand for private transactions, and its delistings show it bothers governments.
Silver is historically cheap with major deficit.
Silver is very cheap relative to gold: the gold/silver ratio hit 1:125 in 2020 and is around 1:65 now versus historical 1:10 and a mining ratio of 1:7. Industrial demand, especially AI/Nvidia, solar, jewelry, and batteries, exceeds mine supply, COMEX and Chinese inventories are falling, and a March COMEX test could expose physical scarcity. He sees at least 10x upside versus gold and owns only physical silver, avoiding paper COMEX contracts as fraudulent and high counterparty risk.
Commodities enter a new supercycle.
Technology is exponential and deflationary, while commodity supply is linear and constrained; years of underinvestment and long mine development mean supply deficits. He would be investing in commodities now, sees the next cycle shifting from technology to commodities, and recommends selling Bitcoin and technology to buy commodities.
Dollar loses credibility and reserve status.
The dollar is losing credibility as countries reduce dollar reserves and buy metals after seeing Russia's reserves confiscated; DXY has fallen sharply. US debt and a huge Treasury rollover threaten funding, and he is betting against the dollar, partly through silver.
Brazil benefits from commodity cycle.
Brazil is essentially a commodity and bank economy; the incoming commodity cycle should favor Brazilian equities and those entering the Brazilian stock market. He expects Brazil to do very well in this next wave.
Cash and T-bills prepare for deflationary crisis.
He expects a severe deflationary financial crisis and agrees with holding cash and T-bills like Buffett and Otávio Facuri to buy assets cheaply after the crash. Cash is important while waiting, although he sees metals as having opportunity cost and prefers them during the wait.
This Market Makers video, published February 07, 2026,
features Avelino Morganti Neto
discussing BTC, GLD, AI-SECTOR, ALTCOINS, Tokenization/RWA, ETH, SOL, TRX, XMR, SILVER, SLV, DBC, DXY, BOVA11.SA, BIL.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Avelino Morganti Neto
· Tickers:
BTC,
GLD,
AI-SECTOR,
ALTCOINS,
Tokenization/RWA,
ETH,
SOL,
TRX,
XMR,
SILVER,
SLV,
DBC,
DXY,
BOVA11.SA,
BIL
