Peak-out is an illusion… Memory semiconductors will continue their 3-year golden age. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's performance will keep getting better | Noh Geun-chang, Center Head

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research at Hyundai Motor Securities, argues that memory semiconductor peak-out fears are an illusion. He sees a 3-year golden age for memory driven by AI and agentic services, with stable prices and attractive valuations. He provides specific PBR-based support levels for Samsung Electronics (23,000 won) and SK hynix (198,000 won) and discusses catalysts like HBM4, data center capex, and shareholder returns.

• Memory semiconductors are entering a multi-year upcycle with stable prices, not a peak.
• Samsung Electronics support at 23,000 won based on conservative 1.5x PBR; stock is cheap.
• SK hynix support at 198,000 won (2x PBR) with HBM4, mobile DRAM, and Solidigm as growth drivers.
• SK hynix ADR listing will not decouple from the cheaper Korean shares; the switch strategy is not attractive.
• Samsung Foundry remains challenged by weak mobile demand, though HBM base dies provide some offset.
• AI diffusion requires fast memory; Korean firms lead in low-power green memory critical for data centers.
• Big tech's desperate AI spending ensures robust memory demand, making the sector the best investment in Korea.
• Valuations remain compelling; patience will be rewarded as earnings grow faster than current depressed prices suggest.