The gold trade is 'totally disconnected' from any fundamental story: Rockefeller's Ruchir Sharma

Gold is trading above $5,000/oz and is up 75% year-over-year. Sharma notes this price action is "totally disconnected from any fundamental story" (real rates, inflation, central bank buying) and is now driven by "massive ETF buying" and momentum. This is a classic mania similar to the late 1970s. In such scenarios, momentum trades "just get so powerful that they keep going" regardless of valuation. The only thing that stops them is a massive external shock (like a huge spike in real interest rates), which Sharma does not see happening. LONG (Momentum). The bubble expands until a catalyst breaks it. A sudden, massive increase in real interest rates (Volcker-style shock).

Bitcoin has been "tanking" while Gold is rallying, exhibiting a negative correlation. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" or a safe haven is failing in this specific market cycle. It is not capturing the flows that are pushing Gold to $5,000. AVOID. The asset is underperforming its primary competitor (Gold) in a favorable macro environment for debasement hedges. A sudden reversal in risk appetite that favors high-beta assets over safe havens.

Gold's performance has been unique and isolated, but historically, "when gold does well, it tends to drag other commodities out." With Gold becoming expensive and disconnected, the logical rotation is to "spread the love" into the broader commodities complex which hasn't yet reflected the same risk premiums. LONG. Diversify into the broader asset class to catch the lag effect. Global recession crushing demand for industrial commodities despite the monetary premium on gold.