Dan Ives: For the first time in 30 years, the U.S. is ahead of China in tech
Speakers
Dan Ives
— Managing Director, Wedbush Securities
Summary
Dan Ives, speaking from Davos, argued that the U.S. has moved ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years because of the AI revolution. He sees the AI cycle as early, not a bubble, and expects software and chips to lead in 2026. He also favors China tech plays like Alibaba, expects a strong tech earnings season, and names NVIDIA, Microsoft, and CrowdStrike among winners.
- Dan Ives says U.S. tech is ahead of China in the AI race.
- He rejects bubble fears and sees AI still in early innings.
- He expects software to surprise and chips to take leadership in 2026.
- He says investors should own China tech plays, including Alibaba.
- He forecasts a monstrously bullish tech earnings season.
- He highlights NVIDIA, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, and cybersecurity as favored areas.
- He advises owning winners and not taking profits in tech.
Ideas
US tech leads China on AI
The next few weeks should bring a monstrously bullish earnings season for tech, and Ives believes that upside is not factored in. He points to Microsoft and hyperscalers, and says investors should own the winners rather than take money off the table.
NVIDIA fuels AI revolution, more upside
NVIDIA is the one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, with Jensen Huang as the godfather of AI. Ives sees significant upside in the name and says this is a time to own the winners rather than take chips off the table.
Microsoft will shine this earnings season
Microsoft is an AI beneficiary and one of Ives's earnings-season names to watch; he points to how it is trading and says it should shine as Big Tech reports.
Chips will lead in 2026
Ives's note says chips will take leadership in 2026, tied to the AI arms race and the ongoing demand for NVIDIA, AMD, and the broader chip complex. He also says it is not time to take chips off the table.
Software poised to surprise this year
Despite fears that AI reduces software seats, Ives thinks software is leading AI use cases and will surprise this year. He cites Palantir as front and center, MongoDB and Snowflake as good examples, and says the negative sentiment, even among cab drivers, makes software a big contrarian long trade.
China tech is underappreciated AI play
The AI arms race is not only a U.S. story; China tech is also a major beneficiary. Ives says investors must own some China plays and that both U.S. and China AI opportunities are being underestimated, naming Baidu and others alongside Alibaba.
Alibaba a favorite China AI play
Alibaba is one of Ives's favorite China tech players in the Ives AI 30 and a huge beneficiary of China tech and AI. The reported plan to IPO its AI chip unit reinforces the China AI investment case.
AI boom is early, not bubble
The AI revolution is still in the third inning with one out, not a bubble, and it is accelerating into this year. Ives thinks investors in both the U.S. and China are underestimating the scale and duration of the AI party.
