I would be a little bit more careful on semis right here: Renaissance Macro's deGraaf
Speakers
Jeff deGraaf
— Technical Analyst, Renaissance Macro
Summary
Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research says the technical backdrop still features many uptrends, but he would be more careful with semiconductors after their big run because valuations and sentiment look stretched. He prefers to look for powerful, broad, emerging trends and highlights health care as an area that is just starting to wake up after years of negative alpha.
- Stocks hit record highs and the early-year tape has been strong.
- Jeff deGraaf says trends matter but investors should not chase wide-eyed optimism.
- He is cautious on semis due to pull-forward, 2000-like valuations, and priced-to-perfection conditions.
- He remains a trend follower and would still own expensive assets in uptrends, but is tentative about adding and looking for corrections.
- He expects a bumpier 2026 than smooth sailing.
- Health care is highlighted as an emerging area with strong trends and breadth after years of negative alpha.
- The segment is cut off as he discusses trend changes in tech and extended areas.
Ideas
Semis priced to perfection; be more careful.
Semiconductors have had a lot of pull-forward, and valuation levels are similar to 2000 on an absolute basis and close to that on a relative basis, leaving the group priced to perfection. The charts are still uptrends and he will still own expensive uptrends, but he is tentative about adding money, looking for corrections, and expects a bumpier 2026, so he would be more careful with semis right now.
Health care waking up; broad opportunity.
For 2026 he is looking for areas that are powerful, have breadth, and are just starting to emerge. Health care fits because trends and breadth are very good, and after three to five years of dominant negative alpha--the worst stretch since the late 1970s--the group is just starting to wake up, creating a lot of opportunity.
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This CNBC video, published January 09, 2026, features Jeff deGraaf discussing SMH, XLV. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeff deGraaf · Tickers: SMH, XLV