Jordi Visser: The Biggest Market Shift of Our Lifetime Is Starting
Speakers
Summary
- Argues the market is in the early stages of a major disruptive shift driven by AI, moving from a "software era" to a "hardware/commodities" era, leading to a repricing of long-duration "fiat assets."
- Believes AI is a structural, non-cyclical bull market that will continue to grow, financed primarily by corporate free cash flow, not debt, creating infinite demand for underlying hardware and materials.
- Calls "software a dead asset class"; while not all going to zero, most will be "dead money" as AI disrupts business models, similar to the impact of Ozempic on processed food stocks.
- Sees a multi-year "multiple compression" environment for equities, similar to the 1970s, where earnings may grow but P/E ratios compress, leading to flat markets with episodic 15-20% corrections.
- Identifies commodities (copper, silver, DRAM) and compute infrastructure (semiconductors, chemicals, optical fiber) as the primary beneficiaries and new sources of alpha, replacing software and the Mag 7.
- Views the current oil price shock as a potential trigger that could accelerate an ongoing, quiet deleveraging cycle in private credit, which started to show stress in late 2023.
- Expects the Fed will likely have to implement a liquidity facility to backstop the private credit market if redemptions and selling accelerate, preventing systemic contagion but causing pain for trapped investors.
- Is structurally long Bitcoin, viewing it as the digital store of value and growth asset of choice for the AI/agentic economy, especially as traditional growth assets (software) fail. Believes it will decouple and outperform once the current deleveraging phase ends and policy responds.
- Argues that in an AI-dominated future, few companies can build durable moats; sees "religion, gold, and Bitcoin" as the only reliable moats, making altcoin/software investing difficult.
- Highlights that financial stocks are the worst-performing sector YTD, agreeing with and pricing in the credit risks bubbling in private markets.
Trade Ideas
Speaker stated "long commodities, long compute, and short anything built on code." Explicitly cited copper, silver, and DRAM as having gone "through the roof" due to AI-driven demand, noting decades of underinvestment in the necessary hardware. AI demand is infinite and structural, but the physical infrastructure (hardware) has been underinvested in for years. This creates a persistent supply-demand mismatch for the underlying commodities. Commodities are a primary beneficiary of the AI transition and a new source of alpha, replacing software. They are non-cyclical within this new paradigm because AI demand is insatiable. Demand destruction if prices rise too far, too fast. A severe global recession that crushes all demand, including for AI infrastructure.
Speaker declared "software a dead asset" and explicitly said to "short anything built on code." Compared it to processed food stocks after Ozempic—a structural headwind replacing a prior tailwind. AI disrupts the business models and moats of software companies. The "software era" (characterized by seat-based, nominal GDP-correlated growth) is over. AI progress is faster than expected, making these long-duration assets reprice lower. Software will underperform and be "dead money." It is no longer the growth engine of the market, and capital will flee it for commodities and compute. A dramatic slowdown in AI progress or adoption, allowing legacy software moats to persist. Regulatory intervention that protects incumbents.
Speaker stated "the hyperscalers in particular... I think they're going to have a really hard time." Identified them as the major spenders on AI infrastructure, implying margin and competitive pressures. Hyperscalers are caught in the shift: they are spending massively on commodity/compute-intensive AI capex while their core software/services businesses face the same disruptive "dead asset" pressures as other software companies. These companies will face significant challenges as they navigate the costly AI transition while their traditional moats erode. They are part of the "anything built on code" segment facing repricing. They successfully monetize AI and create new, durable competitive advantages that justify their spending and sustain growth, maintaining their market dominance.
Speaker is structurally long Bitcoin, calling it "the asset of choice" and a "store of value inside the digital economy." Argued it will be the growth asset pension funds turn to when software and traditional equities fail to deliver returns. As the deleveraging cycle in fiat assets (software, credit) progresses and is ultimately met with policy response (liquidity facilities), capital will rotate into the fastest, scarcest digital asset. Bitcoin is decoupling from software and will benefit from the rise of the AI/agentic economy. Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset on a 6-month horizon from now. It is the accepted digital store of value and will capture flows fleeing repricing fiat assets. A catastrophic, prolonged failure in crypto infrastructure or regulation that breaks the "digital economy" thesis. Software/growth assets unexpectedly resume leadership.
Up Next
This Milk Road Macro video, published March 19, 2026, features Jordi Visser discussing XLB, XLK, META, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, BTC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jordi Visser · Tickers: XLB, XLK, META, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, BTC