What Matters More Than the Index: Criteria for Viewing the February Stock Market | Hong Seon-ae, Yeom Seung-hwan, LS Securities Director

Summary

The host interviews Yeom Seung-hwan, Director at LS Securities, about why the KOSPI has reached 5,000 and how to approach the February market. Yeom argues the rally is mostly earnings-driven and not expensive versus global peers, favors AI semiconductors/memory and select Korean themes like KOSDAQ, nuclear, robotics, and shareholder-return reform, but flags second-quarter risks from US mega-IPOs and inflation. He recommends separating earnings-based stocks from narrative/momentum stocks and holding leaders while managing risk.

• KOSPI's rise to 5,000 is viewed as earnings-driven, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix estimates rising sharply.
• KOSDAQ is supported by government policy targeting 3,000 and strong retail ETF inflows, but valuation screens are less useful than momentum.
• Yeom highlights AI memory, Korean cyclicals, nuclear, robotics/physical AI, and Chinese New Year domestic demand themes.
• Gold and silver are seen as dollar alternatives amid distrust of Trump, high global debt, and weaker dollar credibility.
• Korean equity demand may be supported by pension fund conversion and shareholder-return/governance reform.
• US market style is shifting toward value and small caps, while mega-cap tech looks tired; US mega-IPOs could pressure the Nasdaq in Q2.
• Risks include reaccelerating inflation, Trump tariffs, and large US IPO supply, but tariff-related dips may be opportunities.
• Strategy: distinguish earnings-based stocks from narrative/momentum stocks; hold leaders but manage risk and avoid overreacting to individual investor flows.