August Monthly Outlook: Short-term Rise After an Unprecedented Correction – Reviewing the August Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

Summary

Park Se-ik, Executive Director at Chesley Investment Advisory, analyzes the historic July 2025 market crash he calls the 'Korean Black Monday,' attributing it to leveraged ETF unwinds and foreign option plays. He forecasts a gradual recovery, recommends buying Korean ETFs on dips and Samsung into year-end, while cautioning against Micron and gold. He also sees US big tech and S&P 500 as attractive on pullbacks.

• Korean markets suffered a 37% intra-month crash driven by margin calls in leveraged semiconductor ETFs and large foreign put option buying ahead of the drop.
• Short-term KOSPI 200 ETF (KODEX 200) bounce expected to 7,000, with a stronger October-November rally when foreign investors return (Halloween strategy).
• KOSDAQ 150 ETF offers a high-probability swing trade based on historically recovering its 10-year moving average, targeting 900 from 630.
• Samsung Electronics favored into year-end for a special dividend (50% FCF payout) and an improving foundry turnaround narrative.
• Avoid Micron and commodity NAND memory makers as aggressive Chinese capacity expansion (YMTC, CXMT) threatens a price crash resembling EcoPro's plunge.
• US big tech (QQQ) rebounding after an 8-week correction, and S&P 500 (SPY) monthly trend is intact — buy dips near the 20-month MA.
• Gold likely topped; retail euphoria was a contrarian sell signal, with silver down 53% and gold down 27%, further downside expected.
• Risk management emphasized: avoid leverage, do not chase momentum in a choppy market, and stay healthy—market recovery may take months.