Attempt to control house prices led to a surge in jeonse/monthly rent? Aftermath of the 2026 Tax Reform Plan | Director Kim Hak-ryeol

Summary

Director Kim Hak-ryeol analyzes the 2026 tax reform plan's real estate provisions, arguing the shift to value-based taxation is effectively a tax hike that will tighten the rental market, shift demand toward mid-priced Seoul apartments, and fail to increase housing supply due to political infighting. He recommends easing mortgage lending and accepting private rental providers to stabilize markets rather than relying on punitive taxes.

• 2026 tax reform raises comprehensive real estate holding tax on multi-homeowners and non-resident homeowners, aiming for 'normalization' but seen as a tax increase.
• Tax changes will displace tenants and reduce rental supply, accelerating jeonse and monthly rent increases.
• Demand is expected to concentrate in Seoul apartments around 2 billion KRW as buyers step down from higher-price tiers to limit tax exposure.
• Ultra-high-end luxury homeowners are unlikely to sell despite tax hikes, so that segment remains illiquid but resilient.
• Government supply plans are largely political theater; the same land sites are recycled without actual development, hurting long-term supply.
• Multi-homeowner penalty tax relief is too weak to induce meaningful new listings; most sellable properties have already been sold.
• Relaxing mortgage lending would help genuine end-users and stabilize housing because current buyers are not speculators and lock up properties for over a decade.
• The speaker urges public debate and transparent policy goals, criticizing the current approach as incoherent and dismissing rental-market concerns.