ROMBO NAS CONTAS E DÍVIDA SÓ CRESCEM; TRUMP LUCRA BILHÃO ; O ENIGMA DE JUROS DO FED

Summary

Fernando Ulrich addresses Brazil's worsening fiscal situation with rising public debt and stressed long-term bond yields, the Fed's dovish posture amid market rate-hike bets, and MicroStrategy's new Bitcoin-selling policy to support preferred dividends. He remains bullish on Bitcoin, expects a cycle bottom by October, and warns against Tesla's extreme valuation.

• Brazil's primary deficit and debt/GDP are rising sharply, with long-term IPCA+ bond yields above 7-8.4% reflecting fiscal stress.
• Political uncertainty grows as Lula's re-election odds rise above 60%, adding pressure to Brazilian assets.
• The Middle East truce may be temporary; renewed US-Iran conflict after midterms could spike oil prices.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals a broad framework review; market pricing of imminent rate hikes looks premature.
• MicroStrategy's new liquidity policy includes selling ~$1.25B Bitcoin/year to cover preferred dividends, boosting confidence in STRC.
• Bitcoin sentiment is at extreme lows; the 4-year cycle points to a bottom around October and a new rally in 2027.
• Tesla's Full Self-Driving impresses technically, but the stock's valuation is absurd and not justified by fundamentals.
• Argentine peso devaluation is seen as positive for exports and dollar reserves, while stablecoin regulation could create a parallel market.