Ideas
SpaceX is an amazing company but the stock is grossly overvalued at $2.5 trillion, trading over 100 times revenue, discounting highly uncertain future cash flows at near-zero rates. Many aspirational ventures like asteroid mining and space-based data centers are still unproven. Disciplined investors should wait for better entry points after more visibility and potential sell-offs.
Seller knows more, avoid hyped IPOs
Upcoming large AI IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI are being brought to market at extremely high valuations. The seller always knows more than the buyer, and historically most big IPOs fall below their offering price within a year. Fear of missing out drives investors to overpay.
Cyclical overvalued, capital spend will slow
Semiconductor stocks have become extended and are trading as if they are long-term stable growers, but they are inherently cyclical businesses. At some point, AI-related capital spending growth will slow, and these stocks could sell off substantially, similar to the 2000 tech bust where the NASDAQ fell 78% and took 15 years to recover.
Undervalued profitable insurers, low expectations
Specialty insurance companies like Kinsale and Markel are out of favor, trading at 8-9 times earnings despite strong profitability, low combined ratios, and growing book values from their investment portfolios. The weak insurance cycle masks their quality, and they should benefit from a market rotation.
Hard assets, inflation protection, disciplined allocators
Brookfield Infrastructure and Brookfield Corporation offer exposure to hard assets with long-term, inflation-adjusted contracts. They are disciplined capital allocators and were unfairly marked down due to private credit concerns, but have very few losses and continue to perform well.
Boring building materials leader, strong cash flow
Carlisle Corporation is a leader in roofing, siding, and building materials—a boring but necessary business with strong margins and free cash flow. Flat roofs need replacing every 10-15 years, and consolidation plus reshoring manufacturing provides steady growth.
Real estate development play, long-term growth
Prologis is involved in real estate development and property management, an overlooked way to play long-term growth in an environment where they can compound wealth over time.
Electrical equipment for data centers, utilities
Schneider Electric and Eaton are critical suppliers of electrical equipment for data centers and the massive rebuild of aging utility infrastructure. They benefit from both the AI buildout and the secular need to upgrade power grids.
Cameco well-run, massive uranium reserves
Cameco is a premier, well-run uranium producer in Canada with disciplined management and enough high-quality uranium reserves to last far beyond the lifetimes of anyone listening. It provides direct leverage to the nuclear renaissance.
Uranium bullish on nuclear buildout, security
Uranium is a compelling commodity for the next five years as the nuclear buildout gains force globally, driven by energy security concerns highlighted by Middle East instability. The push toward small modular reactors further underpins long-term demand.
Silver shortfall, industrial demand, debasement play
Silver shares gold's debasement thesis but adds a powerful industrial demand story driven by digitization, robotics, AI, and data centers. The market has been in a supply deficit for years, and continued electrification will widen the shortfall, potentially driving prices to triple-digit levels again.
Currency debasement and debt support gold
Gold is virtually guaranteed to move substantially higher over the next 3-5 years due to $350 trillion in global debt, unfunded liabilities, demographic collapse, and the inevitable currency debasement that governments will use to escape their obligations. It serves as a hedge against fiscal incompetence.
Copper shortfall, tech-driven demand surge
Copper faces a structural supply shortfall as the technology revolution—AI, data centers, electrification—requires enormous amounts of the metal. Developing new copper mines takes nearly a decade, so prices must rise significantly to incentivize production and meet demand.
Wheaton royalty deal, low-cost silver exposure
Wheaton Precious Metals recently completed a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP on a copper mine's silver byproduct, demonstrating its low cost of capital and ability to fund major mining developments. This strengthens its already attractive precious metals exposure.
Bitcoin lacks physical backing, too speculative
Bitcoin lacks physical backing and depends on a greater fool to buy it. Its value relies on others accepting it, there is little inherent utility, and as a technology it risks becoming obsolete if a superior cryptocurrency emerges. The speaker prefers tangible assets, making Bitcoin an unattractive holding.
This Milk Road Daily video, published June 16, 2026,
features Jonathan Wellum
discussing SPCX, ANTHROPIC, OPENAI, SMH, MKL, KNSL, BIP, BN, Carlisle Companies, PLD, ETN, SU.PA, CCJ, URA, SILVER, GLD, COPPER, WPM, BTC.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jonathan Wellum
· Tickers:
SPCX,
ANTHROPIC,
OPENAI,
SMH,
MKL,
KNSL,
BIP,
BN,
Carlisle Companies,
PLD,
ETN,
SU.PA,
CCJ,
URA,
SILVER,
GLD,
COPPER,
WPM,
BTC
