What Are the Three Most Important Variables in the Stock Market in January and February? | 3PRO TV Economist Dr. Kim Han-jin

Summary

Kim Han-jin argues that Korea's semiconductor-driven market leadership can continue, supported by AI/data-center capex, upward earnings revisions, and export-sector strength, though he expects a first-half peak and only a mild correction. He favors Korean export leaders such as semiconductors, autos, bio, and power/SMR, while viewing the domestic economy as weak. He also expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates and sees USD/KRW moving back toward 1400 as the dollar weakens.

• Kim Han-jin says the Korean market is in a semiconductor supercycle, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings still being revised upward.
• He expects a first-half 2026 peak in the semiconductor cycle but not a collapse, as AI/data-center capex may continue to 2028.
• He sees January strength and January-leading sectors as historically correlated with full-year return leadership.
• He favors Korean export sectors: semiconductors, autos, bio, defense, and energy/power, with SMRs highlighted for AI power demand.
• He expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates due to household debt and FX constraints.
• He views the domestic Korean economy as weak but export companies as strong.
• He expects USD/KRW to move toward 1400 rather than 1500-1600 in the first half, and DXY to weaken.
• He says stable FX could encourage more foreign inflows into Korean equities.