Markets Relieved as Trump Signals Iran War Ending 'Soon' | The China Show 3/10/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Markets are experiencing a massive relief rally after President Trump signaled the US-Iran conflict could end "soon" and promised to waive oil sanctions, causing crude to drop from near $120 to below $90.
- Despite the sharp drop in oil prices, physical shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz remain largely blocked, suggesting fundamental supply constraints are unresolved.
- Gold has faced intense selling pressure despite the geopolitical risks, acting as a source of liquidity for investors facing margin calls in other asset classes.
- Chinese equities are exhibiting near-zero correlation with the S&P 500, acting as a low-beta shelter ahead of an upcoming Xi-Trump meeting.
- Battery maker CATL is significantly outperforming domestic EV rivals by dominating the premium vehicle segment and rapidly expanding its highly profitable energy storage business.
Trade Ideas
"Most of the crude coming out of the Gulf isn't flowing... In terms of how physical flows have actually changed, they've changed very little. All you've seen is this headline moving thing that's put it all down." The recent $30 drop in oil prices is purely driven by political rhetoric and sentiment. Because the underlying physical supply chain through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance will eventually force oil prices back up as global inventories deplete. LONG oil and energy equities to fade the headline-driven dip, as physical market realities will ultimately dictate pricing. A sudden, concrete peace agreement is reached, or Saudi Arabia aggressively increases production to flood the market.
"When there is a need for margin calls to be met elsewhere or when there is pressure for cash, gold tends to be one of the first candidates that investors consider... We think it could remain under pressure for some time yet." During severe cross-asset selloffs, gold loses its safe-haven status temporarily because it is a highly liquid asset that investors sell to raise cash. This distress selling creates a mechanical headwind for gold that can last for weeks until leveraged positioning is flushed out. WATCH gold for a better entry point. Wait for the margin-call liquidations to subside and for the asset to find technical support (around the 50-day moving average) before initiating long positions. A sudden escalation in the Middle East triggers panic buying that overwhelms the liquidity-driven selling pressure.
"Korea was again touted as a great value buy... because of its positioning in the value chain and the president's continued effort to boost corporate governance." The Korean market suffered a steep, macro-driven selloff, but its underlying structural tailwinds—dominance in the AI/semiconductor supply chain and domestic regulatory reforms forcing better shareholder returns—remain intact. This creates a dislocation between price and fundamental value. LONG Korean equities to capitalize on the tech-driven rebound and ongoing corporate governance improvements at a discounted valuation. A prolonged spike in global energy prices severely impacts Korea's industrial, export-heavy economy.
"China is quite interesting in this market... people are actually relatively sanguine for at least the month of March just because there is going to be a Trump meeting. So there is a lot of incentive for the government to maintain stability." Chinese large-caps are currently exhibiting near-zero correlation with the S&P 500. Because Beijing wants to project economic strength ahead of high-stakes geopolitical negotiations, state-backed funds ("the national team") are highly likely to intervene and support the market during global volatility. LONG Chinese equities as a low-beta, defensive shelter that offers downside protection via implicit state support. The upcoming diplomatic meetings fail, resulting in immediate and severe tariff escalations that override domestic market support.
"If you look at the earnings cycle as a long-term investor, it's been the best earnings cycle ever in that sector ever... Those are perfect buying opportunities for a long-term investor." The recent selloff in mega-cap tech and semiconductors was driven by geopolitical panic, not deteriorating fundamentals. Because the structural demand for AI infrastructure and data processing is only increasing, these price drops offer a rare chance to buy secular growth at a discount. LONG US tech and semiconductors to capture the uninterrupted AI growth trend following a headline-driven washout. A severe macroeconomic recession forces enterprise customers to slash their IT and AI infrastructure budgets.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 10, 2026, features Nicholas Lua, Suki Cooper, Lanting Tu, Douglas Yones discussing USO, XLE, GLD, EWY, MCHI, FXI, QQQ, SMH. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Nicholas Lua, Suki Cooper, Lanting Tu, Douglas Yones · Tickers: USO, XLE, GLD, EWY, MCHI, FXI, QQQ, SMH