BLS Will Delay the January Jobs Report Due to Shutdown

Summary

Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, discusses the delayed January jobs report and JOLTS data because of the partial government shutdown. She says the US economy remains resilient and BMO has upgraded its US growth forecasts to about 2.5% for 2025 and 2026. She also notes tariff uncertainty is still present but less acute than in April 2025, and says the outlook for a Kevin Warsh-led Fed is highly uncertain.

• BLS postponed the January jobs report and JOLTS release because of the partial government shutdown.
• Jennifer Lee expects labor-market data, job demand, and labor supply to be key mileposts for the US outlook.
• BMO has upgraded US growth forecasts to roughly 2.5% on average for 2025 and 2026.
• She says tariffs are less threatening than earlier in 2025 but remain unresolved and can change quickly.
• She highlights Canada/Mexico USMCA developments and a pulled 10%-25% tariff threat on eight European countries.
• She is uncertain about a Kevin Warsh-led Fed, especially whether he can shrink the balance sheet while lowering short-term rates.
• Warsh still faces Senate Banking Committee testimony and confirmation amid Fed renovation-cost legal issues.