China Says Trump Economic Warfare Won't Solve Iran Crisis

Summary

Anna Ashton argues Washington's Iran-related pressure on China is largely theater ahead of Xi Jinping's September visit and that Xi likely feels he has the upper hand because US alliances and weapons stockpiles have weakened. She flags Chinese export controls on rare earths and critical minerals as the key escalation lever to watch, while China's diversified oil supply weakens US oil leverage. She also sees China catching up in AI data-center buildout, but says export controls are pushing China toward domestic chips and away from Nvidia over the long term.

• China calls US economic pressure on Iran ineffective and says diplomacy is needed.
• Anna Ashton says much of Trump's pre-visit pressure on China and Iran may be theater.
• She agrees Xi may enter US talks with swagger because US alliances and weapons stockpiles have weakened.
• China's rare earth and critical mineral export controls are a key escalation lever but not immediate.
• China's diversified oil and gas supply weakens US leverage over Iranian oil purchases.
• China is catching up in AI data-center buildout due to cheaper energy, though AI capabilities still lag.
• US export controls slow China but are accelerating China's drive toward domestic chip self-sufficiency.
• US Pacific drawdowns and Korea rhetoric are seen by Beijing as positive signals.