Reforma tributária vai nos ferrar?; Selic pode cair; Guerra no Irã recomeça?; UE vai vigiar a todos

Summary

Fernando Ulrich discusses Brazil's tax reform and its split-payment system, the latest IPCA print and the outlook for Selic cuts, renewed US-Iran tensions and oil, the AI capex boom and competition from Chinese models, new Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh, EU's Chat Control law, and Strategy's Bitcoin sale. He answers viewer questions on Brazil's resilience, high global rates, and geopolitical fallout.

• Brazil's new split-payment tax system will drain companies' working capital and add financing costs in a high-rate environment.
• IPCA came in at 0.16% for the month, but inflation remains above target; Ulrich argues there is still room for Selic cuts because rates are overly restrictive and inflation is driven by the fiscal deficit.
• US-Iran peace memorandum effectively collapsed; oil briefly neared $80 and remains a key risk for inflation and markets.
• AI boom may persist as SK Hynix, SpaceX and others raise enormous sums, though Amazon's softer bond demand is a warning signal.
• Chinese AI models are rapidly gaining market share in tokens and capability, threatening the monetization of US leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic.
• New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is launching five task forces, including one on productivity and AI, signaling a regime shift that Ulrich views cautiously optimistically.
• EU's Chat Control law is condemned as Orwellian surveillance, and the digital euro is seen as part of the same anti-freedom architecture.
• Strategy sold over 3,000 Bitcoin to demonstrate liquidity and educate the market, not out of distress, keeping a large cash buffer for dividends.