Name: 2026 Will Be a Roller Coaster Market (Here’s How to Survive It) w/ Michael Lebowitz
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T15:45:08+00:00
Duration: 2125 s

Speakers

Michael Lebowitz — Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors

Summary

Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager at RIA Advisors, joins Milk Road Macro to discuss 2026 market risks. He expects more Fed rate cuts than the market anticipates, continued QE/reserve management, and a volatile but range-bound equity market where high valuations cap rallies. He warns silver's parabolic rally is bubble-like and recommends gold, favors value over Mag 7, and notes Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive asset to watch.

Supreme Court tariff ruling and Trump's Plan B are near-term volatility sources, but tariff inflation impact is largely past.
Fed subpoenas have not moved bond markets; strong 10- and 30-year auctions show solid demand.
Lebowitz expects more Fed cuts than the market due to a weakening labor market and falling inflation.
QE/reserve management should persist; Bitcoin and reserve-sensitive assets are worth watching.
Silver is vulnerable to margin hikes and a flawed debasement narrative; gold is preferred.
2026 equities likely see elevated volatility with valuations capping rallies; active rotation favored.
He favors value over Mag 7/hyperscalers and sees Nvidia as cheap on PEG.
Midterm elections and populist policy measures add to volatility risk.

Ideas

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 0:24

QE reserve growth supports Bitcoin correlation

The Fed's reserve management purchases are effectively QE and may last longer and expand in scope. If reserves can grow, Bitcoin has historically correlated well with changes in reserves, making it a key liquidity-sensitive asset to watch for support.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 11:37

Fed cuts more than expected support Treasuries

The Fed will cut rates more than the market expects because the labor market is weak and weakening and inflation is starting to fall. Strong 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions show solid end-user demand and muted bond volatility, which should support Treasury prices and lower yields.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 18:27

Silver bubble risk; avoid after parabola

Silver's parabolic rally is driven by a flawed dollar-debasement narrative and an overextended supply/demand story. History shows prior silver bubbles ended when CME/CFTC raised margins, and margin hikes have already started, so silver is high-risk and vulnerable.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 20:29

Buy gold over silver for stability

Gold has traded well without silver's parabolic bubble risk. Investors who own silver or believe the debasement story can rotate into gold to retain hard-asset exposure with less volatility and portfolio risk.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 21:57

2026 volatile; valuations cap rallies

2026 should see more volatility: a strong economy, Fed QE/cuts, and AI provide bullish potential, but high valuations after three strong years cap rallies, leading to repeated up/down swings and average drawdowns. Investors need active risk management and rotation.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 25:12

Value outperforms Mag 7 this year

AI benefits are likely to arrive slower than the market expects; capital is impatient and tech innovations often cause bubbles. In 2026, out-of-favor sectors and factors like value should outperform the Mag 7/hyperscalers, and the speaker is slowly repositioning toward value.

Michael Lebowitz Portfolio Manager, RIA Advisors 26:44

Nvidia cheap on PEG ratio

Nvidia's high P/E is misleading; its PEG ratio is around 1, making it cheap relative to slower-growing staples, though future growth estimates are highly uncertain because AI direction can change quickly.

2026 Will Be a Roller Coaster Market (Here’s How to Survive It) w/ Michael Lebowitz

Summary

Ideas

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