Ed Yardeni Lowers Year-End S&P 500 Target to 7,900

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 17, 2026 at 13:41  |  2:09  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ed Yardeni — President, Yardeni Research

Summary

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research lowered his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, citing geopolitical risks, higher-for-longer oil, additional Fed hikes, global bond-market stress, and Japan carry-trade unwind concerns. He still expects the S&P 500 to be above current levels, with the prior 8,400 target now more likely by mid-next year. He expects higher oil prices due to Middle East escalation and remains concerned about bonds and the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.

  • Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400.
  • He sees the 8,400 level as more likely by the middle of next year.
  • He expects higher-for-longer oil prices after Middle East escalation.
  • He warns energy inflation could spill into core prices.
  • He expects the Fed may raise rates one or two more times this year.
  • He is concerned about global bond vigilantes and the bond market.
  • He flags the unwinding of Japan's yen carry trade as a key risk.
Ideas
Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 0:00
S&P target still implies upside
He lowered his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400 because geopolitical risks have worsened, oil prices are likely higher for longer, the Fed may hike another one or two times this year, bond vigilantes are active globally, and the unwinding of Japan's carry trade is a concern. He still expects the index to be above current levels and sees the prior 8,400 target as more likely by mid-next year, so the outlook remains positive but less bullish.
SPY HIGH
Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 0:53
Higher-for-longer oil on Middle East war
He expects oil prices to be higher for longer because the war in the Middle East has escalated. That could keep energy inflation elevated and increase the risk that energy price pressures spill over into core inflation.
WTI HIGH
Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 1:32
Japan carry unwind risk supports yen
He is particularly concerned about the unwinding of the carry trade in Japan. US pressure on Japan to raise interest rates faster could make cheap yen financing too expensive and risky, forcing hedge funds to unwind yen-funded carry trades. This is a developing risk to monitor, with implications for the yen and global markets.
FXY MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 17, 2026, features Ed Yardeni discussing SPY, WTI, FXY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ed Yardeni  · Tickers: SPY, WTI, FXY