Interest Rates Spike, Politicians Take Sides on the AI Safety Debate, Time’s AI Cover | Diet TBPN

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 15, 2026 at 22:00  |  31:48  |  TBPN
Speakers
John Coogan — Co-Host, TBPN
Jordi Hays — Co-Host, TBPN

Summary

The hosts analyze surging interest rates driven by war-related energy inflation and AI capex demand, with Treasury yields above 5% and a Fed rate hike expected. They review Apollo's view that rates fall whether AI succeeds or fails, plus Dylan Patel's sovereign debt tail risk. Later segments cover AI safety in politics, Time's AI cover and Tarbell funding debate, OpenAI's enterprise AI momentum, and Apple's iPhone Duo at the Emmys.

  • Interest rates are surging, with Treasury yields above 5% for the first time since 2007.
  • War in the Middle East is driving oil and energy prices higher, feeding inflation.
  • AI capex creates investment demand before productivity benefits, pressuring rates.
  • Apollo argues rates fall in both AI success and AI failure scenarios.
  • AI safety has become a mainstream political and media issue.
  • Time's AI safety cover and Tarbell Center funding are debated.
  • OpenAI's Astra is gaining enterprise AI spend share.
  • Apple's iPhone Duo drew attention at the Emmys.
Ideas
John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 0:02
War inflation pushes Treasury yields higher
AI creates investment demand before any productivity benefits arrive. Trillion-dollar capex is happening against only a couple hundred billion in revenues; data centers require financing, construction, equipment, and electricity. Economists describe AI as a source of upward pressure on real rates and prices during the compute buildout.
TLT HIGH
John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 0:02
War inflation pushes Treasury yields higher
The Middle East war is driving energy shortages and inflation, which hurts Treasury bonds and pushes yields above 5%. Inflation is running too hot (CPI 3.4%, PCE 3.7%, core 3.3%), making it hard for the Fed to cut and leading markets to expect a rate hike.
10-Year Treasury Yield HIGH
John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 2:04
War threatens oil supply through Hormuz
The war causes energy shortages, and oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz is a key pressure point. Energy is a key input into everything, so higher energy prices bleed into broader inflation.
WTI HIGH
John Coogan Co-Host, TBPN 2:30
Solar buildout is underestimated and deflationary
The IEA has underestimated solar buildout every year for 10 years. Continued solar expansion will lower energy costs, be deflationary, bring down inflation, and enable new things.
SOLAR MED
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This TBPN video, published September 15, 2026, features John Coogan discussing TLT, 10-Year Treasury Yield, WTI, SOLAR. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: John Coogan  · Tickers: TLT, 10-Year Treasury Yield, WTI, SOLAR