Samsung Electronics' Performance is the Best... But the Nightmare of 2018 When It Fell Comes to Mind. "Don't Rush to Buy Yet" | Hwang Yuhyun Team Leader

Summary

Hwang Yuhyun, PB Team Leader at Shinhan Investment, discusses the recent market turbulence driven by yen carry trade unwinding and heavy foreign selling. He cautions that despite record earnings, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix face strong overhead supply and are likely to trade sideways for an extended period, advising investors not to rush in. Instead, he suggests monitoring semiconductor equipment/materials and foundry names that exhibit strong revenue growth in Q2 results as potential future leaders.

• Foreign selling and KOSPI weakness are linked to yen strengthening and carry trade liquidation fears.
• Credit balances in the Korean market have shrunk significantly, reducing speculative overheating.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to consolidate sideways; heavy overhead supply from trapped longs limits upside.
• Historical parallel: Samsung's peak earnings in 2018 preceded a year-long decline despite good results.
• Investors should wait for a breakout above 210,000 won (SK hynix) or ~280,000 won (Samsung) before adding aggressively.
• Q2 semiconductor equipment/materials and foundry reports will separate leaders by revenue growth, not just profit.
• Foundry-related stocks are receiving positive news and warrant attention.
• Overall market remains volatile; avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, and focus on surviving the next few weeks.