LIVE: Stocks UP, Crypto DOWN! How To Trade Every BLACK SWAN Event... Everyone Is Getting RICH?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 22, 2026 at 22:39  |  2:45:22  |  Thread Guy
Speakers
Thread Guy — Crypto influencer, independent

Summary

Thread Guy reviews market close, discusses his long Zcash position, and runs through 18 black swan scenarios with specific trades for each. He covers crypto, stocks, commodities, and bonds in a hypothetical disaster-playbook format.

  • Market close: SPX, NDX, Dow, IGV, semis all up; crypto mixed with Zcash and Bitcoin flat/weak.
  • Thread Guy reaffirms his long Zcash plan with buy levels around 560 and stop below 500.
  • Crypto altcoins are under pressure; Ethereum and Solana look weak, Hyperliquid down on regulatory news.
  • He presents 18 black swan event scenarios and details how he would trade each one.
  • Common themes include shorting Bitcoin in many scenarios and longing gold, space, and defense.
  • Guest Chris Camilillo's Sweet Green call is highlighted as up 45%.
  • Quantum stocks (QBTS, RGTI, INFQ) are discussed as beneficiaries of government funding announcements.
  • The stream concludes with a plan to monitor geopolitical risks over the 3-day weekend.
Trade Ideas
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 14:05
Zcash leader in crypto move
Zcash is a leader that will outperform if crypto makes a move. It is breaking a 10-year resistance level, and the risk-reward is still worth it. I plan to buy again at ~560 and exit if below 500.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 84:53
Hack LLM, short SoftBank, long Apple/VVV
If an AI lab secretly achieves AGI and announces it, short software ETF (IGV) and long Palantir (defense) and SoftBank (AI SPV). AGI will drive defense and AI investment.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 84:53
Hack LLM, short SoftBank, long Apple/VVV
If an LLM's chat logs are hacked, it will be nuclear. Short SoftBank (owns OpenAI). Long Apple (local AI hardware) and VVV (privacy). The biggest trend is local AI.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 90:01
Robot accident, short TSLA and GOOGL
If a robot kills a human in a demo or Waymos are hacked and drive off cliffs, short Tesla and Google. The panic will hurt autonomous vehicle/robot companies.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 95:17
Alien contact, long RKLB and bonds
If Trump escalates the Iran war and remains in office, short US bonds (they go to zero) and long oil (oil to $300). The environment is hyper-inflationary.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 99:25
Satoshi moves coin, long gold
If US payment rails are down for a week, on-chain trading is the only option. Long Hyperliquid (decentralized exchange) and CrowdStrike (cyber defense). Also long gold.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 109:40
CA earthquake, short ABNB, long copper
A California mega-earthquake would destroy tourism and infrastructure. Short Airbnb (5% revenue from CA) and long copper (rebuilding demand).
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 109:40
CA earthquake, short ABNB, long copper
A California mega-earthquake would destroy tourism and infrastructure. Short Airbnb (5% revenue from CA) and long copper (rebuilding demand).
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 118:16
China invades Taiwan, long INTC, EBAY
If China invades Taiwan, chip shortage will make Intel the only viable leading-edge fab. Also long eBay because physical GPU prices skyrocket and trade on eBay.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 121:04
Baldness cure, long HIMS
If a cure for male pattern baldness is invented, long Hims & Hers (HIMS) because they will distribute the drug and the stock will candle green.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 124:56
AGI achieved, short IGV, long PLTR, SFTBY
If an AI lab secretly achieves AGI and announces it, short software ETF (IGV) and long Palantir (defense) and SoftBank (AI SPV). AGI will drive defense and AI investment.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 135:17
Quantum cracks encryption, short BTC, long INFQ
If a quantum computer cracks encryption, short Bitcoin (all crypto becomes obsolete) and long quantum computing stocks like INFQ (they become essential).
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 135:17
Quantum cracks encryption, short BTC, long INFQ
If a quantum computer cracks encryption, short Bitcoin (all crypto becomes obsolete) and long quantum computing stocks like INFQ (they become essential).
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 136:49
AOC breaks up Google, long META
If AOC becomes president and breaks up Google, long Meta (META). The biggest ad business becomes even stronger without Google's competition.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 142:36
China AI leads, long BABA
If a Chinese AI lab (DeepSeek) takes the lead, finally long Alibaba (BABA). The narrative shift makes BABA a good long-term bet.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 144:52
New pandemic, long ZM and pharma
If a mutated Ebola strain causes another pandemic, long Zoom (ZM) and big pharma (XLV). The COVID playbook repeats.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 145:56
Zyns dangerous, short PM
If Zyns are found as dangerous as smoking, short Philip Morris (PM) for a couple days. Big tobacco gets hit.
Thread Guy Crypto influencer, independent 147:05
Asteroid coming, long RKLB, HOOD
If an asteroid is confirmed to hit Earth in 10 years, long space (Rocket Lab) and long gambling platforms (Robin Hood). People will spend on space and degenerate trading.
Up Next

This Thread Guy video, published May 22, 2026, features Thread Guy discussing ZEC, SFTBY, IGV, AAPL, VVV, TSLA, GOOGL, TLT, USO, GLD, HYPE, CRWD, COPX, ABNB, INTC, EBAY, HIMS, PLTR, BTC, INFQ, META, BABA, ZM, XLV, PM, HOOD, RKLB. 18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Thread Guy  · Tickers: ZEC, SFTBY, IGV, AAPL, VVV, TSLA, GOOGL, TLT, USO, GLD, HYPE, CRWD, COPX, ABNB, INTC, EBAY, HIMS, PLTR, BTC, INFQ, META, BABA, ZM, XLV, PM, HOOD, RKLB