Trump Will Have to Make 'Bad Deal' With Iran, Says Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 18, 2026 at 21:10  |  15:29  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Jake Sullivan — Former US National Security Advisor

Summary

Jake Sullivan argues the Trump administration has boxed itself into a costly Iran war with no good options: continue the conflict or pay a steep price to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He warns the US is alienating partners like Oman and South Korea while strengthening China's strategic leverage. Sullivan also says Iran-war munitions diversions are leaving Ukraine exposed to Russian attacks on its grid.

  • Sullivan says the US faces two bad Iran options: prolonged war or a very bad deal.
  • Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and raising demands for reopening.
  • He warns Trump's threat to bomb Oman is counterproductive since Oman wants de-escalation.
  • Netanyahu has tried to get multiple US presidents to attack Iran, but prior presidents refused.
  • Sullivan says Trump's South Korea military-exercise cut risks economic and technology ties, including memory chips.
  • He argues China sees Trump degrading US alliances and will meet Xi with stronger leverage.
  • Sullivan contends diverting Patriot interceptors to Iran leaves Ukraine vulnerable to Russian grid attacks.
Ideas
Jake Sullivan Former US National Security Advisor 0:54
Strait closure keeps oil supply risk elevated.
Sullivan says the US is in a strategic cul-de-sac with Iran and that Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed while raising its demands to reopen it, creating ongoing costs to the global economy and escalation risks. That keeps oil supply and transport risk elevated until a bad deal reopens the strait.
WTI LOW
Jake Sullivan Former US National Security Advisor 10:51
Alliance friction threatens South Korea technology ties.
Sullivan argues South Korea is a vital US partner in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain, high bandwidth memory and memory chips, plus batteries and electric vehicles, but Trump's decision to scale back military exercises and punish an ally risks damaging the broader economic and technology relationship. That creates geopolitical risk to South Korea's technology and industrial role.
EWY MED
Jake Sullivan Former US National Security Advisor 12:21
China gains leverage, economic and tech progress.
Sullivan says China is making economic and technological progress and diplomatic inroads while Trump degrades America's alliance network, so Xi Jinping will arrive in Washington with stronger leverage. He notes China already used rare earth export controls to force a major US trade concession.
FXI MED
Jake Sullivan Former US National Security Advisor 14:21
Ukraine left exposed, facing winter energy risks.
Sullivan says the Iran war diverted Patriot interceptors from Ukraine, leaving it exposed to larger Russian missile salvos aimed at electricity, heating and lighting. He warns the US is leaving Ukraine naked and that Putin's winter goal is to plunge Ukraine into cold and darkness.
Ukraine MED
Up Next
10:10
What to Expect When China's Xi Goes to Washington Next Month
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 18
47:24
Gold Explodes, But Lobo Tiggre Is Not Buying, Here's Why
The David Lin Report · Aug 18
1:43:09
COMO INVESTE UM DOS MAIORES INVESTIDORES BRASILEIROS | Market Makers #401
Market Makers · Aug 18
8:43
AI's New Rules of Engagement
Morgan Stanley · Aug 18
9:34
Stocks Fall As Global Bond Yields Stay Elevated | Closing Bell
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 18

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 18, 2026, features Jake Sullivan discussing WTI, EWY, FXI, Ukraine. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jake Sullivan  · Tickers: WTI, EWY, FXI, Ukraine