MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 23, 2026 at 18:06  |  1:12:58  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Ole Hansen — Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager

Summary

Ole Hansen discusses the broad commodity implications of the Iran crisis, focusing on energy, refined products, fertilizers, and metals. The conversation highlights structural backwardation, a higher floor for oil, and potential food inflation. The postgame includes specific trade setups: a bull call spread on deferred WTI and a bearish put spread on the S&P 500.

  • Iran conflict has caused extreme backwardation in crude oil and disrupted energy-intensive commodity supply chains.
  • Brent crude's floor has shifted $10-15 higher; deferred contracts offer value and roll yield.
  • Fertilizer shortages from Middle East may reduce crop yields, especially for nitrogen-intensive wheat.
  • Ole Hansen suggests a pairs trade: long wheat, short soybeans to exploit fertilizer disparity.
  • Copper is supported by supply constraints (sulfuric acid) and recovering Chinese demand.
  • Gold's long-term bull case remains, but near-term consolidation persists due to oil inflation fears.
  • Patrick Ceresna proposes a bull call spread on December 2026 WTI for convex upside with defined risk.
  • Erik Townsend is bearish on equities due to prolonged energy disruption and has bought S&P 500 put protection.
Trade Ideas
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 7:21
Brent crude floor moved higher, buy deferred.
The new floor for Brent crude oil has moved $10-15 higher due to the Iran-driven supply disruption and the time needed for normalization. The December 2026 contract near $80 is undervalued relative to the new floor, and extreme backwardation provides positive roll yield, making deferred contracts attractive.
BNO HIGH
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 26:51
Long wheat, short soybeans on fertilizer.
Fertilizer shortages from the Middle East crisis will hit nitrogen-intensive crops like wheat harder than soybeans, which fix their own nitrogen. A pairs trade long December 2026 wheat futures and short November 2026 soybean futures captures this differential without taking directional commodity risk.
Wheat futures (December 2026) MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 26:51
Long wheat, short soybeans on fertilizer.
Fertilizer shortages from the Middle East crisis will hit nitrogen-intensive crops like wheat harder than soybeans, which fix their own nitrogen. A pairs trade long December 2026 wheat futures and short November 2026 soybean futures captures this differential without taking directional commodity risk.
Soybean futures (November 2026) MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 37:14
Gold long-term bullish, watch for entry.
Gold's multi-year bull run foundation remains intact despite the correction. Once the oil-driven inflation shock passes and central bank dilemmas support gold, prices will resume higher. Current consolidation is a pause, not a reversal.
GLD MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 41:00
Copper bullish on supply and demand.
Copper prices are well-supported by supply constraints, including the reliance on Middle Eastern sulfuric acid for mining, and recovering demand in China as inventories drop. The structural deficit and energy transition demand point to further upside.
HG=F MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 50:51
Bull call spread on deferred WTI.
The structural floor for crude oil has risen, and deferred contracts are cheap relative to spot. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI using November options captures upside with defined risk, low time decay, and high delta exposure.
WTI crude oil December 2026 futures HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 54:56
Bearish S&P 500 on energy disruption.
The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure will disrupt energy supply for months, severely impacting the global economy and corporate profits. The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a sharp decline. I bought a 6800/6000 put spread on S&P 500 futures as a hedge.
S&P 500 futures HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 66:39
Uranium miners bullish long-term.
Uranium miners have a bullish chart with strong nuclear news flow tailwinds and structural accumulation. If the broader market holds, uranium miners should continue to outperform. The risk is a broad market sell-off, but the long-term outlook is very positive.
Uranium miners (sector) MED
Up Next
3:36
Meta Tells Staff It Plans to Cut 10% of Jobs in Efficiency Push
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 23
4:38
Warner Bros. Shareholders Approve $110 Billion Paramount Deal
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 23
1:26:38
Blackstone's Jon Gray says AI is Single Biggest Driver | Open Interest 4/23/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 23
34:59
Squawk Pod: AR Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders & POTUS approval ratings - 04/23/26 | Audio Only
CNBC · Apr 23
5:30
Reflection CEO on AI race: The best open models are coming from China
CNBC · Apr 23

This Macro Voices video, published April 23, 2026, features Ole Hansen, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing BNO, Wheat futures (December 2026), Soybean futures (November 2026), GLD, HG=F, WTI crude oil December 2026 futures, S&P 500 futures, Uranium miners (sector). 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ole Hansen, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: BNO, Wheat futures (December 2026), Soybean futures (November 2026), GLD, HG=F, WTI crude oil December 2026 futures, S&P 500 futures, Uranium miners (sector)