Schrödinger's Strait of Hormuz: Open or Closed?

Summary

Bloomberg's Stephen Stapczynski discusses the ambiguous status of the Strait of Hormuz after recent vessel attacks. While some ships still transit, overall traffic remains far below pre-conflict levels, and fresh strikes are causing owners and exporters to reassess risks. The prospect of tolls or fees is complicated by sanctions, and insurance rates may creep higher, affecting energy shipping costs.

• A tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, following another ship strike days earlier.
• Despite attacks, some vessels continue to transit both Iranian and Omani sides of the strait.
• Daily ship movements remain at 30–40, down from over 140 in February, far below normal export levels.
• The International Maritime Organization paused evacuations to assess security.
• Potential tolls or fees for passage face U.S. opposition and sanctions-related banking hurdles.
• Insurance rates for shipping had fallen from March peaks but may rise again after the latest incidents.
• Two LNG tankers turned around and are holding outside the strait, possibly due to safety or cost concerns.
• The situation remains fluid, with Monday's market reaction seen as a key indicator.