Summary
US private-sector employment rose by 41,000 in December according to ADP, with annual pay up 4.4%, as goods-producing jobs slipped and service-providing jobs led by education/health services and leisure/hospitality drove the gain. Discussion focused on whether the ADP report matters ahead of Friday's BLS nonfarm payrolls release, with the payrolls consensus forecast now at 66,000. Michael McKee noted ADP may signal direction but rarely matches the official numbers, and that the Fed is watching the unemployment rate more closely than payrolls.
- ADP said US private payrolls rose 41,000 in December, after declining in the prior month.
- Annual pay was up 4.4%; goods-producing jobs fell 3,000, including a 5,000 drop in manufacturing.
- Service-providing jobs rose 44,000, led by education and health services (+39,000) and leisure and hospitality (+24,000).
- Anchors questioned ADP's relevance ahead of the BLS nonfarm payrolls report due Friday.
- The consensus forecast for nonfarm payrolls has risen to 66,000.
- Michael McKee said ADP may offer a directional signal but rarely matches payroll numbers.
- McKee said the Fed focuses more on unemployment than on payroll growth.