'Trump's negotiation skills don't work on Iran' Oil price spike, interest rate hike concerns, shaky market | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Lee Yun-su, CEO of Eris Master Institute

Trump's negotiation skills don't work in Iran' Oil price hike, interest rate hike concerns, shaky market | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Lee Yun-su, CEO of Eris Master Institute [Crypto PLUS]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 24, 2026 at 04:30  |  31:11  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Lee Yoon-soo — CEO
Seo Dong-ju — Host

Summary

The video discusses the geopolitical implications of the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on global markets. The speaker warns that a prolonged conflict could lead to severe supply chain disruptions, triggering massive spikes in oil and agricultural commodities like wheat.

  • The US-Iran conflict is strengthening Iran's regional influence while exposing the limits of US military pressure.
  • A failure to resolve the conflict could lead to a physical shortage of oil, causing a massive spike in global oil prices.
  • Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting fertilizer exports, threatening to drive up winter wheat prices and global food inflation.
  • Prolonged Middle East instability could cause sovereign wealth funds to pull capital from US tech and AI investments.
  • Sustained oil-driven inflation could force the Federal Reserve to aggressively hike interest rates, negatively impacting bonds and growth stocks.
Ideas
Supply chain disruptions threaten massive oil spikes.
The ongoing US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten physical oil supplies. If companies rush to stockpile and Cushing inventories cannot meet the demand, physical oil shortages will lead to a massive spike in oil prices, pushing up futures as well.
Prolonged conflict threatens Middle Eastern AI funding.
Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are currently massive contributors to US tech and AI investments. If the regional conflict prolongs, these nations may redirect their capital toward internal rebuilding, starving the US AI sector of crucial foreign funding and driving up real interest rates for capex.
Sustained inflation will force aggressive rate hikes.
If oil prices spike and remain elevated for more than three months, it will drive up both headline and core CPI, embedding structural inflation. This would force the Federal Reserve to aggressively hike interest rates, leading to a plunge in bond prices and severe damage to growth stocks.
Fertilizer shortages will drive wheat prices higher.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupting the distribution of fertilizer, which is heavily exported from the Middle East. If fertilizer does not reach farmers in time for the winter wheat planting season, wheat yields will plummet, driving wheat prices significantly higher than their current 40% year-to-date increase.
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