If the crashed KOSPI breaks 6800, the Korean stock market will change / How far will KOSDAQ rebound? | Daishin Securities Department Head Lee Kyung-min

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 13, 2026 at 07:00 | 25:48 | 815 Money Talk (815머니톡)

Speakers

Lee Gyeong-min — Manager

Summary

Lee Kyung-min views the recent crash as a normalization opportunity, expecting US yields to fall and KOSPI to recover toward 9,300 once 6,500-6,800 is reclaimed. He sees KOSDAQ's rebound as supported by valuation reset, improving earnings and the premium-index policy. He favors oversold undervalued KOSPI sectors and KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment/materials and biotech candidates, while warning retail against leveraged ETFs.

Leveraged ETFs amplified volatility but their deleveraging is largely absorbed.
Nvidia's AI finance platform is framed as ecosystem building, not circular default.
Intel rights offering and CXMT news are called overblown for Korean memory; shortage continues through 2026-27.
US rate-hike fears are seen as overstated; CPI/PPI could lower yields and support markets.
KOSDAQ's rebound is supported by valuation reset, improving EPS and premium-index policy.
KOSPI normalization needs a break of 6,500-6,800; targets are 7,500-7,600 then 9,300.
Core KOSPI sectors are semiconductors, secondary batteries, autos, shipbuilding and power equipment.
KOSDAQ leadership candidates include semiconductor equipment/materials and pharmaceutical/biotech.

Ideas

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 1:18

Avoid leveraged ETFs due negative compounding.

Leveraged ETFs are a volatility-amplifying instrument with negative compounding: even if the underlying returns to the same level, the leveraged product can lose value. They are not suitable for non-experts, and retail speculative concentration in them can create mechanical sell-offs. However, much of the recent deleveraging appears already done, so the market impact is fading.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 6:39

Korean memory fears overblown; shortage persists.

Intel's rights offering and CXMT DRAM headlines are feared but are not a reason to turn bearish on Korean memory. Intel's capital raise reflects Intel-specific funding stress, while Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are cash-rich and making strong AI bets; memory shortage is expected to persist through 2026-27. The Korean chipmakers' weakness is driven more by fragile sentiment than facts.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 10:54

US yields should fall as inflation slows.

The market is over-fixated on Fed rate-hike fear, but the conditions for a hike are not met: oil is below $100, CPI has leveled down and PPI is expected to fall sharply. As CPI/PPI confirm easing, US Treasury yields should decline from 4.6-4.7%, giving relief and a rebound catalyst to risk assets.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 12:02

KOSDAQ rebound supported by valuation reset.

KOSDAQ's recent surge is supported by valuation reset from PER around 30x to 16x and PBR near 2x, peaking government bond yields, improving forward EPS, and KOSDAQ promotion premium index hopes. A reasonable rebound target is half of the prior decline, roughly 1,000 points, though sustained upside needs rate stability, abundant liquidity and policy follow-through.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 18:29

Buy KOSDAQ premium index candidate sectors.

The KOSDAQ promotion/premium index criteria were expanded to include growth, not just profitability, governance and marketability. Screening for candidate inclusion shows semiconductor equipment/materials names dominate and some pharmaceutical/biotech names are entering; this policy catalyst is changing KOSDAQ leadership and supports those names.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 20:09

KOSPI to normalize toward 9,300.

KOSPI's crash was extreme: a 38% drop occurred even as earnings and leading indicators are rising, unlike prior crashes when both turned down. Valuation support is clustered at 6,200-6,800, so breaking 6,500-6,800 would trigger faster normalization toward 7,500-7,600 and then the prior high around 9,300, with further upside if earnings/leading data keep rising.

Lee Gyeong-min Manager 20:41

Favor oversold undervalued KOSPI core sectors.

In the KOSPI normalization phase, investors should focus on oversold and earnings-undervalued sectors. The core portfolio should be semiconductors, secondary batteries, autos, shipbuilding, and power equipment, with retail/distribution, defense, insurance, and securities as plus-alpha choices, and internet/pharma-bio as previously neglected but profitable areas.

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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published August 13, 2026, features Lee Gyeong-min discussing Leveraged ETFs, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TLT, KOSDAQ Composite Index, KOSDAQ Semiconductor Equipment and Materials, KSE:GMP, KOSPI Composite Index, Korean Semiconductors, Korean secondary batteries, Korean retail/distribution, Korean autos, Korean Shipbuilding, Korean Power Equipment, Korean Defense, Korean insurance, Korean securities, Korean internet, Korean pharmaceutical/biotech. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Gyeong-min · Tickers: Leveraged ETFs, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TLT, KOSDAQ Composite Index, KOSDAQ Semiconductor Equipment and Materials, KSE:GMP, KOSPI Composite Index, Korean Semiconductors, Korean secondary batteries, Korean retail/distribution, Korean autos, Korean Shipbuilding, Korean Power Equipment, Korean Defense, Korean insurance, Korean securities, Korean internet, Korean pharmaceutical/biotech