NEC’s Hassett on Jobs Report, Oil Exports, US Economy

Summary

• Describes the March jobs report (303,000 headline, ~68k 3-month average) as evidence of significant economic momentum driven by policies like deregulation, low taxes, and "no tax on tips."
• Argues the US economy has regained its role as the global economic engine and is more insulated from energy shocks than in the 1970s, maintaining a 4% GDP growth outlook despite higher oil prices.
• States the US is ready to export more crude and refined products to Asia to mitigate supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflict, acting as a "safety net."
• Highlights administrative actions to minimize domestic disruption, such as waiving the Jones Act to transport fuel to the West Coast.
• Points to oil futures and options markets as a guide, suggesting they agree with the view that the current price spike is a temporary disruption.
• Expresses high confidence the Middle East situation will be resolved "very shortly," which would unlock long-term benefits like reduced geopolitical risk premiums and increased investment in the region.
• Acknowledges monitoring "little things" like jet fuel shipments globally to minimize economic disruption.
• Does not endorse near-term tax cuts on gasoline or diesel, focusing instead on resolving the underlying conflict.