Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography

Summary

Sarah Paine lays out a geopolitical framework contrasting continental empires, which seek security through territorial conquest, with maritime powers, which pursue prosperity through trade. She argues Russia and China face structural geographic and institutional limits, while sea-based trade and shipping enjoy compounding economic advantages. The lecture ends by warning that the continental model is negative-sum and that the maritime rules-based order is the only win-win path.

• Defines continental powers as land-focused and security-driven through conquest, while maritime powers defend at sea and pursue wealth through trade.
• Applies Mahan's maritime prerequisites to argue that neither China nor Russia has the full geographic and institutional basis for maritime prosperity.
• Reviews Russian expansion, China's dynastic history, and current Putin/Xi behavior as examples of the continental security paradigm.
• Contrasts negative-sum continental warfare with positive-sum maritime trade and compounded growth.
• Shows that containerization, large ships, and sea routes made sea transport much cheaper and more secure than land corridors like Belt and Road.
• Warns that Putin and Kim are trying to upend the maritime rules-based order, and argues the win-win solution is diplomacy and institutions rather than war.