1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned

Summary

Andrew Ross Sorkin joins Chamath and Friedberg to discuss his book 1929: the credit-fueled setup of consumer lending, 10-to-1 margin loans, no SEC, a 48% market gain in 1928 and radio/RCA as the Nvidia of its day, plus the central characters Charlie Mitchell and Carter Glass and the lobbying origins of Glass-Steagall. Turning to 2025, Sorkin assumes markets are in some bubble of unknown size and timing, with leverage in peripheral real-estate, energy and private-credit plays and circular Nvidia/AMD-OpenAI deals, while the hosts raise dollar devaluation, gold at $4,000 and 7% peacetime deficits. The conversation also covers AI's effect on employment and productivity, why socialism flared later after 1929 than after 2008, government overspending, tariffs as national-security policy, and the film rights to the book.

• Sorkin traces the 1929 setup to the birth of consumer credit (GM in 1919, Sears), 10-to-1 margin lending, no SEC and a 48% market gain in 1928.
• Radio and RCA played the role AI and Nvidia play today; banks and corporations lent balance-sheet and depositor money into stocks.
• Charlie Mitchell of National City and Senator Carter Glass drive the story; Glass-Steagall arose partly from rival banks lobbying against JP Morgan.
• Sorkin assumes 2025 is some bubble but not necessarily 1929; leverage sits in peripheral real-estate, energy and private-credit plays, and Nvidia/AMD-OpenAI deals look circular.
• Hosts note gold at $4,000, a weak dollar and 7%-of-GDP peacetime deficits, framing the market as partly a monetary and fiscal phenomenon; Sorkin says equities, gold and Treasuries do not line up classically.
• Ex-Mag 7 and ex-data-center spending the economy looks flat; AI productivity gains may pressure employment, though Chamath sees a slopware phase before real quality gains.
• The socialism debate came later after 1929 than after 2008; Friedberg blames government overpromising and overspending, and all agree spending must be cut.
• Tariffs are framed as national-security resilience (the BYD example) versus paying more for worse cars; Sorkin has not yet sold the film rights.