Bessent’s Iran Threat Hinges on US Willingness to Hit China | The Pulse 8/25/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 25, 2026 at 11:29 | 48:00 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Karen Ward — Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Maria Demertzis — European University Institute, Economic Policy Professor

Adrian Cox — Deutsche Bank Research, Thematic Strategist

Will — Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Energy Analyst

William — Bloomberg Reporter

Summary

The episode covers Scott Bessent's Iran sanctions threat and potential collision with China, then turns to markets with Karen Ward on dollar weakness, debasement, risk assets and inflation hedges. Maria Demertzis discusses U.S. Treasury intervention risks, German resilience, and European gas vulnerability. Adrian Cox previews Nvidia earnings and argues AI infrastructure demand remains strong despite high expectations and rising competition.

Bessent announces Operation Economic Outcast to block Iranian revenue; China risk remains a warning shot.
Karen Ward says policy discomfort may weaken the dollar and revives the debasement trade, supporting risk assets.
Ward recommends core infrastructure, transportation and real assets as inflation insurance.
Maria Demertzis warns Treasury buybacks could threaten U.S. safe-asset status and says German data is improving but gas storage is vulnerable.
Adrian Cox sees near-term Nvidia guidance risk but structural AI demand lasting four to five years.
Bloomberg Intelligence sees peak Strait of Hormuz dependence and diversification away from the Strait.

Ideas

Karen Ward Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 10:03

Watch dollar as policy uncertainty spills over

Treasury intervention combined with fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty makes the market uncomfortable, and that discomfort tends to show up through the currency. With most investors already significantly overweight U.S. assets and the dollar, she says investors should watch dollar exposure because the currency is the relief valve.

Karen Ward Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 10:29

Bitcoin rallies as debasement trade returns

She confirms the debasement trade is coming back, not just because of the U.S. but because governments globally are under pressure to spend more and want central banks to help. Bitcoin is one expression of investors insuring themselves against this going too far.

Karen Ward Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 13:16

Hold infrastructure, transport and real assets

To remain risk-on while protecting against inflation, she advocates holding core infrastructure, transportation assets and real assets as insurance in case inflation really takes off.

Maria Demertzis European University Institute, Economic Policy Professor 25:36

Watch Treasuries as safe-asset doubts grow

Treasury interventions that blur the line with the central bank create confusion about future yields; to the extent they signal concern about U.S. debt viability, that threatens the safe-asset status of Treasuries and would be systemic for global portfolios, so it must be watched carefully.

Maria Demertzis European University Institute, Economic Policy Professor 30:24

Watch German economy's investment-led improvement

German business confidence and outlook have improved for a fourth month and committed investments are beginning to show positive results. She wants to watch whether this improvement is sustained because a moving German economy would add stability to the European economy.

Maria Demertzis European University Institute, Economic Policy Professor 30:51

Watch European gas on low winter storage

European gas storage levels are lower this year than last, leaving smaller buffers going into winter. If winter is cold, that vulnerability becomes a problem, so European gas prices are an important winter risk to monitor.

Adrian Cox Deutsche Bank Research, Thematic Strategist 40:59

Watch Nvidia guidance and supplier switching risk

Expectations for AI infrastructure stocks are very high and NVIDIA must show guidance and evidence that demand is not shifting to other chip suppliers producing custom chips. The market is trying to find where the edge is and it is not clear those stocks can keep maintaining it.

Adrian Cox Deutsche Bank Research, Thematic Strategist 44:42

AI infrastructure demand outstrips supply for years

AI demand remains strong with some forecasters expecting at least four or five years before current demand is matched by supply. Questions about financing structures are secondary because demand shows no sign of stopping, and only a minority of companies currently use AI, implying a long runway.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 25, 2026, features Karen Ward, Maria Demertzis, Adrian Cox discussing USD, BTC, Core infrastructure, Transportation assets, GLD, TLT, EWG, European gas prices, NVDA, AIQ. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Karen Ward, Maria Demertzis, Adrian Cox · Tickers: USD, BTC, Core infrastructure, Transportation assets, GLD, TLT, EWG, European gas prices, NVDA, AIQ