Karen Ward

Oil prices can fall to $70 in the next couple of weeks as the US-Iran deal opens the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC discipline weakens, Iran may sell oil openly, and Gulf states rush to monetize at current prices, all adding supply and removing the war premium.

Within the uncertain AI theme, the safest exposure is the inputs: semiconductor and memory producers. Whoever wins the AI race will use those same inputs, making them less vulnerable to end-use adoption risks.

European stocks are undervalued and still price in too much structural pessimism. Falling oil from the Iran deal will be a huge tailwind, and a different, more growth-focused tone from Brussels will support a broadening rotation back into European equities.

Short-term interest rates are a big opportunity because the market is overpricing the likelihood and magnitude of central bank rate hikes. The ECB and Fed will at most deliver a gesture hike, and then stop, meaning short-term yields are too high and will decline.

US Tech is "priced for perfection," while Europe is trading at historic discounts. Germany is shifting its fiscal stance, moving away from strict austerity ("Black Zero") to stimulus (1-2% of GDP). Markets are obsessed with Monetary Policy, but Fiscal Policy is the new driver. A fiscal unleash in Germany changes the structural growth narrative for Europe. Beaten-down sectors like Autos may benefit from government support to compete with China. LONG. Rotate out of US Mega Cap Tech into European Cyclicals and Germany. Fiscal stimulus gets bogged down in bureaucracy; trade tariffs from the US hurt European exporters.