If Rates Are Held and Market Rates Rise, Which Sectors Will Perform Better? | Lee Jae-man, Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center

금리동결, 시중금리 상승시 어떤 업종이 수익률이 좋아질까? | 이재만 하나증권 리서치센터 글로벌투자분석실장 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 25, 2026 at 22:45  |  40:50  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Lee Jaeman — Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Lee Jae-man, Head of Global Investment Analysis at Hana Securities Research Center, discusses how to position for a Fed hold with rising market rates. He warns that a US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5% can pressure equities, favors gold and commodity-linked resource sectors, and recommends stocks with near-term EPS acceleration over distant earnings. He also sees Korea outperforming a stagnant US market, with Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, autos, and low PER/PBR value names leading a broadening market.

  • FOMC is expected to hold rates, but strong US growth may keep market rates and the 10-year Treasury yield rising.
  • A US 10-year yield above 4.5% is framed as a warning threshold for the S&P 500.
  • High-expectation US tech and semiconductor earnings may be vulnerable to sell-the-news reactions.
  • The speaker favors gold on currency debasement and commodity-linked resource sectors on low expectations and rising prices.
  • The preferred earnings screen is stocks with 1Q/2Q EPS growth above annual or 12-month growth when rates rise.
  • Korea is seen outperforming the US, driven by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, with autos and low PER/PBR stocks broadening leadership.
  • Korean consumer stocks are a watch item that could recover if market rates fall.
  • Korea Circuit is cited as a base-effect turnaround watch within the near-term earnings acceleration theme.
Ideas
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 6:45
10Y above 4.5% warns on equities.
The Fed is expected to hold rates because US GDP growth is strong, but market rates and the 10-year Treasury yield are likely to rise. Historically, when the US 10-year yield rises above 4.5%, the S&P 500 has corrected (about 9% in 2023 and 4% in 2024), so 4.5%+ is a warning signal for equities.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 11:56
High-expectation tech can sell off.
Earnings expectations for US IT/semiconductor leaders are very high. Last quarter, Meta fell about 15% after an EPS miss, while Microsoft and NVIDIA fell 3-6% even after modest beats; only Alphabet and Amazon, which beat by over 25%, saw strong positive reactions. This means high-expectation tech names can be sold off unless they clear a very high bar.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 15:46
Commodity-linked resource firms to surprise.
Rising commodity prices, including gold, silver, and copper, are creating potential earnings surprises for out-of-favor materials/resource industries. Because expectations for these sectors are low, an earnings beat could lift their shares and quickly drive upward revisions to next-quarter estimates, making commodity-linked sectors an area of hot interest while US IT faces cost pressure.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 20:39
Buy near-term EPS accelerators as rates rise.
When the Fed holds rates and the 10-year yield rises, high discount rates make distant earnings less reliable. Backtests in both the US and Korea show that stocks with near-term quarterly EPS growth above annual/12-month growth, especially with 1Q above annual and 2Q above 1Q, outperform. The speaker highlighted US names such as NVIDIA, Walmart, Salesforce, Morgan Stanley, Palo Alto Networks, Micron, Lam Research, KLA, and Analog Devices, and Korean names such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Celltrion, Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Samsung Securities, Hanwha Engine, Silicon2, and Daehan Synthetic Fiber.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 22:58
Gold gains on currency debasement.
Gold should be valued by the value of money rather than corporate earnings. With money losing value and trust in currencies shaken, gold has repeatedly hit all-time highs, and that monetary-debasement demand remains the key driver.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 29:03
Microsoft lacks near-term EPS acceleration.
Microsoft has 1Q EPS growth above its annual rate, but its 2Q EPS growth is expected to fall versus 1Q. Unlike NVIDIA, it lacks near-term acceleration, so it may have some upside but requires more time and caution under the rising-rate regime.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 31:37
Korea Circuit base-effect turnaround watch.
Korea Circuit's 1Q net income growth is extremely high, though much of it is base-effect driven. Since the market likes turnarounds, high-growth base-effect names can remain interesting even after strong price moves.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 35:29
Korea to outperform stagnant US market.
The US market looks stagnant because IT/semiconductor leadership is facing rising input-cost pressure and stretched prices. Korea can outperform because Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings growth drives the KOSPI, and broadening beyond semiconductors, especially autos, supports the market.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 36:13
Korean auto parts lead on robot hopes.
Korean autos/auto parts have cheap valuations, robot-related expectations as a trigger, and empty supply/demand positioning. They became the top-performing Korean sector in January and can play an anchoring role as market leadership broadens.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 37:34
Buy low PER/PBR Korean stocks.
As leadership broadens and previously cheap stocks start moving, investors should look for Korean stocks that still have earnings growth but trade at low PER and PBR; auto/auto parts are a model, but the style can spread.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 38:11
Korean consumers need lower market rates.
Korean consumer stocks have lagged while exporters led, but export leadership may not last forever. The timing for consumer stocks likely depends on rates; when market rates fall, consumption-linked stocks can recover.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 25, 2026, features Lee Jaeman discussing US10Y, SPY, XLK, XLB, NVDA, WMT, CRM, MS, PANW, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, 329180.KS, 068270.KS, 009540.KS, 009150.KS, 016360.KS, 082740.KS, 257720.KQ, 006650.KS, GLD, MSFT, 007810.KS, EWY, Korean auto parts sector, Korean low PER/PBR value stocks, KOREAN CONSUMER SECTOR. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Jaeman  · Tickers: US10Y, SPY, XLK, XLB, NVDA, WMT, CRM, MS, PANW, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, 329180.KS, 068270.KS, 009540.KS, 009150.KS, 016360.KS, 082740.KS, 257720.KQ, 006650.KS, GLD, MSFT, 007810.KS, EWY, Korean auto parts sector, Korean low PER/PBR value stocks, KOREAN CONSUMER SECTOR